- The Green Bay Packers are -8.5 against the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football in Week 12. The total is set to 45.5.
- The Bears are on a four-game losing streak.
- The Packers are one-game back of a first-round bye in the playoffs.
- Green Bay ranks top-four in the NFL in red zone touchdown rate and third-down conversion rate.
The Green Bay Packers (7-3) and Chicago Bears (5-5) meet in primetime on Sunday night for a game that has serious playoff implications. Despite starting the season 5-1, the Bears are on a four-game losing streak and are in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. The Packers, on the other hand, have a comfortable two-game lead in the NFC North and are still in play for a first-round bye.
The Packers boast one of the best offenses in the NFL and an MVP candidate in Aaron Rodgers. They are surely in the conversation for Super Bowl contenders. but the Bears have a formidable defense led by premier edge rusher Khalil Mack. This divisional game should tell us a lot about what to expect for the Packers and Bears for the rest of the season.
The Action Rush Sunday Night Football betting guide has the best odds, interesting props, analysis, and everything else you need to know for Packers vs. Bears in Week 12.
Packers – Bears Spread Week 12 SNF
There is some slight variation in the lines from book to book. The Packers are anywhere from -8.5 to -9 depending on which sportsbook you are looking at. The Bears are +360 on the moneyline while the best price on Green Bay is at -400. Needless to say, the books expect a big win for the Packers.
Chicago is even against the spread this year with a 5-5 record on DraftKings Sportsbook. Packers backers have had a solid season so far. Green Bay is in the black with a 6-4 record against the spread in 2020.
The total is set to a relatively low 45.5. The Packers rank third in the NFL in scoring offense (30.8 ppg), but the inept offense of the Bears is expected to keep the total in check. The Packers have hit the over in six of 10 games this season. Unsurprisingly, the Bears have only hit the over three times in 10 games.
Who is the public betting on?
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-8.5) / Total Points 44 per FanDuel sportsbook NFL public consensus picks.
Game Preview & Betting Angles
Clearly, the Packers are the significant favorite for a reason, but division games have a tendency to surprise us. As bad as the Bears have looked in their last four games, a win on Sunday would move them to within one game of the Packers in the NFC North. Crazier things have happened.
Here are all the game notes you need to know for both teams before this crucial game.
Packers Game Notes
Green Bay will go as far as its offense takes it. This is a group led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams. The pairing is one of the best in football and it’s quite clear that Rodgers trusts Adams as much as any wide receiver he’s ever played with.
When Adams is healthy and on the field, he’s one of the best receivers in football. He already has 10 touchdown receptions in just eight games. Despite not practicing all week, Adams should be good to go for Sunday. That’s bad news for the Bears, who have a strong passing defense, but will have to load up on stopping Adams.
Adams is crucial for Rodgers on third downs and in the red zone. Green Bay is fourth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate (47.9%) and red zone touchdown rate (73.7%).
The issues for the Packers are mostly on the defensive side of the ball. They struggle to gain a consistent pass rush and only have 21 sacks and 43 quarterback pressures on the season. The Bears have a weak offensive line, so Green Bay will need to step up the pass rush to have success.
Bears Game Notes
The Bears are the exact opposite of the Packers. They have an elite defense with an offense that’s struggling. The Packers’ offense is clinical on third downs and in the red zone. The Bears are not. Chicago ranks 31st in third-down conversion rate (31.1%) and dead last in red zone touchdown rate (48.1%). It’s tough to score points for teams that consistently struggle in those situations.
Nick Foles took over for Mitchell Trubisky earlier this year, but outside of a few slashes, he has not helped the Chicago offense much. A large part of that has to do with the struggles of the Chicago offensive line. Foles is nursing an injury this week so Trubisky could be back under center.
Where the Bears excel is on the defensive side of the ball. Khalil Mack can singlehandedly blow up an offensive gameplan with his pass-rushing ability. Although he only has 6.5 sacks this year, he also has two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, and one interception. When Mack makes a play, it is usually a game-changer.
As a whole, the Bears are sixth in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 20.9 points per game. If they are going to have any hope of beating Rodgers and the Packers, the defense will have to come up big.
Bears vs. Packers Player Props
|Passers||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)||21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130)||238.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -175)|
|Aaron Rodgers (GB)||25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130)||296.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||2.5 (Ov +140 | Un 190)|
|Rushers||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|David Montgomery (CHI)||13.5 (Ov +100 | Un -140)||52.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||76.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)|
|Cordarrelle Patterson (CHI)||N/A||14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||27.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)|
|Aaron Jones (GB)||13.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||53.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||83.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)|
|Jamal Williams (GB)||N/A||24.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||39.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)|
|Receivers||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Allen Robinson (CHI)||5.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150)||65.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||22.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115)|
|Darnell Mooney (CHI)||2.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110)||33.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125)|
|Anthony Miller (CHI)||2.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110)||29.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||16.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125)|
|Davante Adams (GB)||6.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110)||88.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||26.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115)|
|Robert Tonyan (GB)||3.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150)||37.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||17.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115)|
|Allen Lazard (GB)||3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||46.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125)|
How To Watch Packers – Bears Sunday
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 29
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
- TV: NBC
Betting Picks & Score Prediction
The Packers are going to win this game, but it’s tough to predict whether or not the Bears will hang around in this game. Division games can be tricky when betting on the spread. Stay away from picking either team on the spread and take the over on the total points which is currently set to 45.5.
The Packers consistently put up 30+ points and they have scored 42 or more twice this season. The Bears defense is strong, but we expect Rodgers and the Packers to be able to put up enough points to push the over on the total points.
Final Score Prediction: Packers win 31-23
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