Last Updated on May 1, 2020
With 2020 NFL storylines continuing to stay relevant throughout the offseason, DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM Sportsbook have all released their latest NFL Futures odds for upcoming awards. Today, we’ll focus on the best values for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
If we look at recent history, this award very rarely goes to non-Quarterbacks or Running Backs. The last time a Wide Receiver won Offensive ROY was Odell Beckham back in 2014 and that was the only non-QB/RB to take home the medal in the last 10 seasons.
Joe Burrow is the favorite on the board universally across the sites, but with both Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert likely in QB battles in the early part of the season, the value is more likely to come in non-QBs.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts RB:
- DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL & BETMGM: +1000
Joe Burrow = +225
Tua Tagovailoa = +700
Clyde Edwards-Helaire = +700
Jonathan Taylor = +1000 pic.twitter.com/e5nh8mCUc2
— Locked On Colts Podcast (@LockedOnColts) April 26, 2020
After an incredibly dominant career at the University of Wisconsin, Taylor is being considered an afterthought for Offensive ROY with the Chiefs adding LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+550) to their stable of offensive talent. It’s easy to understand why the public loves CEH: first running back drafted, Andy Reid has comped him to Brian Westbrook etc. But I just don’t think the value is there when there’s so many different weapons for Mahomes to get the ball to in Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. Plus Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson are still under contact.
Enter Taylor, who the Colts traded up to get in the second round and have raved about his skillset in their system behind a top tier offensive line. He’s far more likely to get more carries per game than Edwards-Helaire and had 2,000-plus yards from scrimmage every year he was in college. When he was asked to improve as a pass catcher, Taylor did so, averaging nearly 10 yards per reception while catching five touchdown passes as a receiver.
Wisconsin really tried to get the ball to Jonathan Taylor as a receiver last year. Here are the top-12 RBs in targets per route run among the college backs I have charted: pic.twitter.com/D1hCr6j9Qg
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) May 1, 2020
With more projected volume, and opportunities for touches over Edwards-Helaire, along with being more of a necesesity for the Colts style of offense, this makes him a better value play to me.
J.K Dobbins, Ravens RB
- DRAFTKINGS: +1600
- FANDUEL: +2800
- BETMGM: +1400
The Baltimore Ravens were by far and away the top rushing offense in the NFL a season ago and add a versatile, tough, physical runner in Dobbins who also has the home run ability to break away once he gets past the first line of opponents.
J.K. Dobbins (RB, Ohio State, Round 2, Pick 55) did all he could to get the Buckeyes to the title game.
Elite speed in the open field. pic.twitter.com/kVPbbTxAwe
— Connor Newcomb (@ConnorNewcomb_) April 29, 2020
The concern over Mark Ingram and Justice Hill, along with Lamar Jackson taking away touches and touchdowns is legitimate, but according to longtime NFL Scout and NFL Films Senior Producer Greg Cosell, Dobbins’ home in Baltimore is a perfect fit.
— Fantasy Points (@FantasyPts) April 29, 2020
If the Ravens make more of a concerted effort to keep Jackson from getting injured, while still remaining a lethal threat in the running game, Dobbins has the skillset and perhaps the opportunity to maximize his efficiency and make big plays for this Ravens offense.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers RB
- DRAFTKINGS: +2500
- FANDUEL: +1500
- BETMGM: +2500
Ke’Shawn Vaughn has 2,208 career rushing yards after contact pic.twitter.com/yqwq3fGKN6
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 25, 2020
Vaughn put up huge numbers in the SEC, despite playing for a struggling Vanderbilt squad that finished 3-9 and in last place in the SEC East. But now he heads to a Tampa Bay Bucs squad that just added Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to a team that finished with two 1,000+ yard WRs in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. They also caught 17 total touchdowns as well.
But Tampa never seemed to effectively get their running game going. Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber only combined for 1,194 total rushing yards all season along with only one receiving touchdown. With Brady in the fold, he’ll want a back that’s not able to pick up chunk yards on offense, but also able to catch out of the backfield the way he utilized James White for years in New England’s offense. Of all running backs headed to new teams, Vaughn has perhaps the best opportunity to utilize the starting spot right away as the lead back. Fantasy Sports Hall of Famer Brad Evans pointed out that more and more betters, particularly on FanDuel Sportsbook have realized the potential value in Vaughn where the line has moved from 90/1 down to 15/1.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn's Offensive Rookie of the Year odds this week on @FDSportsbook …
The #VoteForVaughn movement is gaining momentum.
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) April 30, 2020
Chase Claypool, Steelers WR
- DRAFTKINGS: +5000
- FANDUEL: +5500
- BETMGM: +5000
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) April 25, 2020
Of all the Wide Receivers in an unprecedented draft class, Claypool has a chance to be the steal of the draft with his size and speed combination in Pittsburgh. He reminds me quite a bit of Evan Engram with the New York Giants, and the two of them are almost identical in height (6’4″) and weight (230). Notre Dame used him in a variety of packages: on the outside as a wide receiver, as a blocker almost in a tight end role (they also had Cole Kmet, the top Tight End off the board to the Chicago Bears at 43), but his versatility for a heavy-pass offense in Pittsburgh is extremely enticing. Plus, the Steelers know a thing or two about drafting wideouts.
LOOK OUT FOR CHASE CLAYPOOL
The Steelers are statistically the BEST team at drafting wide receivers in the NFL.
They have't taken a WR as high as they just took WR Chase Claypool (#49 overall) since 2006.
Says a lot as to how much they like him.
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 25, 2020
Pittsburgh needs another go to option, particularly in the red zone that’s not named JuJu Smith-Schuster. With plenty of volume likely headed his way, Claypool might be the best value option on the board and possibly the first WR/TE to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in six years.