Last Updated on April 2, 2020

 


As the NFL offseason roars on, the betting market for professional football has been focused on futures. One of the most popular betting markets is without a doubt NFL win totals, which are simply betting over or under on a certain team winning a certain amount of games. For example, the New England Patriots have a win total of nine. If you believe the Patriots will win 10 or more, bet the “over”. If you believe they will win eight or less, bet the “under”. William Hill US has provided us with betting odds, trends, and public betting information that has tracked how bettors are viewing the NFL win totals market. Let’s take a look.

 

Betting Public All In on Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons have their NFL win total set at 7.5 games. The betting public thinks that total is too low, as 83% of the total tickets on the Falcons have come in on the over, with just 17% on the under. For total dollars wagered, 92% of the money has come in on the Falcons over 7.5 wins. NFL bettors believe Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Todd Gurley along with some talent on defense will be at least .500 this season. The Falcons’ schedule is a bit tougher than originally anticipated though, as the division has gotten better with Tom Brady signing in Tampa Bay, the Saints re-tooling, and the Panthers bringing in a new coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback. The Falcons’ non-divisional schedule includes the Vikings, Chiefs, Packers, and Chargers on the road and the Bears, Lions, Broncos and Raiders at home. This is not an easy schedule, so the public is taking a bit of a risk here by being so heavily on Atlanta.

 

Are Bettors Betting On or Against Tom Brady?

Tampa Bay Bucs Win Total Percentage of Money Percentage of Tickets
OVER 9 21% 67%
UNDER 9 79% 33%

This is quite odd, isn’t it? Ever since bettors could wager on where Tom Brady would sign, the NFL futures market has been enamored by Tom Brady bets. Now since he’s signed with the Bucs, all eyes are on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ win total and odds movement. Since William Hill US posted their win totals, the numbers are staggering. Of all the tickets wagered in this market, 67% of them have come on over 9 wins. That seems fine, but what is odd is only 21% of the total money has come in on the Bucs winning more than 9 games. Simply put, there is heavy money on the Bucs under 9 wins, as some bettors do not believe Brady will take them over the top. With these type of splits, it indicates that there is either heavy or sharp money on one side. It will be interesting to see how the money balances out, or if odds are changed.

 

Top 3 Most Popular NFL Win Total Bets

 

There are three betting markets for William Hill NFL win totals that have a consensus of 90% or more.

  • New York Jets OVER 6.5 Wins – 94% of Money
  • Green Bay Packers UNDER 10 Wins – 93% of Money
  • Atlanta Falcons OVER 7.5 Wins – 92% of Money

All three betting markets are heavily skewed towards one side, but no other bets have come in over 85 percent consensus. With the Jets over being one market, part of that can be attributed to the New York/New Jersey betting market, so the Packers under 10 and Falcons over 7.5 are two to keep an eye on.

Take a look at a full breakdown and updated NFL Win Totals.


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