Last Updated on January 23, 2021

The Kansas City Chiefs are set to host the 2021 AFC Championship Game for the third consecutive year. Their next opponent will be the Buffalo Bills who beat the Baltimore Ravens 17-3 on Saturday night. The big question mark surrounds the health of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes who left the Browns game with a concussion in the third quarter. Mahomes’ status for the AFC Championship is uncertain and will have a major impact on the odds.

Here’s a look at the opening odds of this matchup between the Bills and Chiefs in the 2021 AFC Championship game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Which team will represent the AFC in the 2021 Super Bowl?


Bills – Chiefs AFC Championship Info

2021 AFC Conference Championship Game Details
Buffalo Bills (13-3, 6-2 Away) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2, 6-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021
Time: 6:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, MO
Coverage: CBS


Bills vs. Chiefs Spread & Odds

All NFL betting lines via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: BUF: (+100) | KC: (-118)
Spread: BUF: +1.5 (-114) | KC: -1.5 (-106)
Total: Over-Under 50.5 points
Odds to Win Super Bowl LV: BUF: (+260) | KC: (+220)

DraftKings Odds Moneyline Spread Total
Buffalo Bills +124 +2.5 (-110) O 50.5 (-115)
Kansas City Chiefs -146 -2.5 (-110) U 50.5 (-105)



Bills vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Josh Allen (BUF) 26.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 305.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -225| Un +175)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 26.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101) 310.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -250| Un +195)
Running Backs Rush Attempts Rush Yards Receiving and Rush Yards
Darrel Williams (KC) 9.5 (Ov -112| Un -112) 41.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Devin Singletary (BUFF) 9.5 (Ov -120| Un +100) 39.5 (Ov -118 | Un -103) 63.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Josh Allen (BUF) N/A 33.5 (Ov -110| Un -110) N/A
Wide Receivers + Tight Ends Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
John Brown (BUF) 4.5 (Ov +115| Un -143) 52.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)
Dawson Knox (BUF) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -137) 23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 13.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 7.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 94.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 26.5 (Ov -128 | Un +105)
Devin Singletary (BUF) 2.5 (Ov -182 | Un +145 19.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105) 11.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120)
Cole Beasley (BUFF) 3.5 (Ov -161 | Un -130) 47.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105)
Tyreek Hill (KC) 5.5 (Ov -165 | Un +130) 77.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)
Travis Kelce (KC) 7.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 94.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)



AFC Title Game Preview

This is the matchup that we have all been waiting for in the AFC. The Chiefs have been the favorite to win the Super Bowl all year long, but the Bills represent their biggest threat in the AFC. Josh Allen’s emergence as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL has a lot to do with that, but it’s actually the defense that showed up against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. Buffalo held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense to just three points.

The Chiefs still don’t know who they are going to have under center on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes was forced to leave the game with a concussion, paving the way for backup quarterback Chad Henne to close it out for the Chiefs. There is some optimism that Mahomes should be ready to go for Sunday, but nothing is a done deal yet.

This is going to be the second time the Bills and Chiefs meet this season. If the second game goes anything like the first, the under might be the play in this one. The Bills established the run early in their first meeting. The Chiefs leaned into the running game as well, but they might not have Clyde Edwards-Helaire due to a high-ankle sprain.


Despite the low-scoring game between these teams in Week 6, the total is set to as high as 53.5 at some sportsbooks. If Mahomes is healthy, this could turn into a shootout where Josh Allen needs to keep the Bills within striking distance.

Again, so much is riding on Mahomes’ health at this point. If he can go, the Chiefs will remain as the favorites. However, if the reigning Super Bowl MVP is out on Sunday, expect the Bills to see some significant line movement and a late surge of betting from the public.


Chiefs vs. Bills Public Betting Picks

Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
BUF Bills +3 36% 42% Over 54.0 59% 46% +130 65% 71%
KC Chiefs -3 64% 58% Under 54.0 41% 54% -148 35% 29%

Betting splits via DraftKings Sportsbook.


Betting Trends

– Kansas City defeated Buffalo, 26-17, when these two teams last met in Week 6 of the 2020 NFL regular season.
– Kansas City is 7-9-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
– Buffalo is 12-6 ATS this season.
– The total has hit the over in 12 of Buffalo’s 18 games.

Team Stats & Rankings

– Buffalo is averaging 30.3 points per game (PPG) this season (#3 in the NFL).
– Buffalo is surrendering 22.3 PPG this season (#9 in the NFL).
– Kansas City is averaging 29.6 PPG this season (#4 in the NFL).
– Kansas City is surrendering 22.6 PPG this season (#11 in the NFL).

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction

The Chiefs have struggled against the spread this year. Although they are 15-2 on the season, they have not been blowing teams out. We expect this to be a close game with the Bills covering. Take Buffalo plus the points.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs win 31-30



Chiefs – Bills FAQ

What is the Bills vs. Chiefs Line?

The Buffalo Bills opened as -1.5 point favorites over the KC Chiefs, but the line quickly moved to the Chiefs -1.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

What time is Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship?

The AFC Championship game takes place Sunday, January 24, 2021 with a 3:05 pm EST kick-off on CBS.

What is the over-under for Bills vs. Chiefs?

The over-under for the Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship game is 50.5 points

Is Patrick Mahomes Playing in the AFC Championship Game?

Yes, Mahomes is officially active for the 2021 AFC Title game.

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