Last Updated on December 28, 2020

  • The Buffalo Bills are -7 on the spread against the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 16. The total is set to 46 points.
  • The Bills are 9-5 against the spread this season.
  • The Patriots will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
  • Buffalo has the inside track at the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
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The Buffalo Bills (11-3) and New England Patriots (6-8) have reversed roles this season. For the last two decades, New England has had a stranglehold on the AFC East, but now it’s Buffalo’s time to shine. The Patriots are going to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008 while the Bills are looking for their first playoff win since 1995.

Of course, bragging rights in the division are still there, but the only tangible thing on the line in this game is playoff positioning for the Bills. They can clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win. In past years, that would have been enough to secure a bye for Buffalo, but with the extra team in each conference’s playoff picture, they will still have to play in Wild Card weekend.

The Action Rush Monday Night Football betting guide has the best odds, interesting props, analysis, and everything else you need to know for Patriots vs. Bills in Week 16.


Patriots – Bills MNF Odds Week 16

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The Bills are -7 on the spread against the Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 16. Buffalo is a significant favorite on the moneyline at -303. The total is set to 46 points.

Buffalo has been great against the spread and on overs this season. They are 9-5 against the spread and have hit the over in 10 of their 14 games. On the flip side, the Patriots have only hit the over in four of their 14 games in 2020.

Spread the Love for Monday Night’s Bills-Patriots Matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook



Public Betting Trends HAMMERING The Bills Tonight!

Week 16 MNF Splits
Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
BUF Bills -7 87% 90% Over 46.5 56% 56% -315 90% 91%
NE Patriots +7 13% 10% Under 46.5 44% 44% +260 10% 9%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook



Bills vs. Patriots Player Props MNF

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TD
Josh Allen (BUF) 24.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 279.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -200 | Un +155)
Cam Newton (NE) 15.5 (Ov +100 | Un -125) 169.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov +180 | Un -225)
Running Backs + QB Attempts Rush Yards Rush + Receiving Yards
Zack Moss (BUF) 10.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 42.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 53.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Devin Singletary (BUF) 8.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 35.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 53.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Josh Allen (BUF) N/A 29.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Cam Newton (NE) 8.5 (Ov +100 | Un -140) 39.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Wide Receivers + Tight Ends Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Cole Beasley (BUF) 4.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 50.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Stefon Diggs (BUF)  6.5 (Ov -134 | Un +110) 85.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 25.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Damiere Byrd (NE)  3.5 (Ov +115 | Un -143) 38.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 18.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Jakobi Meyers (NE)  4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -155) 51.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Dawson Knox (BUF) 2.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) 27.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 14.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)



Game Preview and Betting Angles

The Buffalo Bills are the real deal this year. If not for the Kansas City Chiefs, they would have a wide-open path to the Super Bowl in the AFC. They are riding a four-game winning streak as the Patriots flounder. New England is struggling to gain any kind of traction offensively. The switch from Tom Brady to Cam Newton has not gone as planned.

Let’s take a deeper dive into this AFC East matchup by taking a closer look at each team.


Patriots Notes

Despite the disappointing season, the Patriots are not going to be a cakewalk for the Bills. When these two teams met in Week 8, the Patriots had a chance to beat the Bills on the final drive. But a costly Cam Newton fumble ended New England’s chances at pulling off the upset.

Speaking of Newton, the former MVP has had his struggles in his first year with the Patriots. He has not thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game all season long. Of course, the Pats have adapted the offense to focus on using his legs, but it has not translated to wins. Newton and the Pats have only put up 15 points over the last two weeks.

Even without Tom Brady leading the offense, the belief was that Bill Belichick would have this New England defense playing well enough to keep their heads above water. That hasn’t happened. The Patriots took a massive step back on defense this year.

They are going to have their hands full with this Buffalo offense. New England is 26th in the NFL in rush defense. That’s bad news considering the Bills have a strong backfield duo of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary. Add in the fact that Josh Allen is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL and it’s a tall task for this New England defense.



Bills Notes

Speaking of Josh Allen, he’s taking a massive step forward this year. Although he’s unlikely to win the award, Allen is at the very least in the conversation for the MVP. He has a career-high 30 passing touchdowns to go along with eight rushing touchdowns. The third-year quarterback is the real deal.

It helps that he has two dynamic receivers to throw to on the outside. Stefon Diggs is on an absolute tear this season and he is already well over his career-high mark for receiving yards and he’s leading the NFL with 111 catches. Diggs is well on his way to his first All-Pro nod.

Diggs garners a ton of attention from defenses, which opens up space for Cole Beasley to operate out of the slot. Beasley has gone for over 100 yards in three of his last five games and he is on the verge of going over 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

Defensively, the Bills are also weak against the run. They are middle of the pack in the NFL, allowing 121.4 rush yards per game. If the Patriots can establish the ground game with Newton, they can keep the ball out of Allen’s hands.



How To Watch Patriots – Bills Monday

  • Date: Monday, Dec. 28
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
  • TV: ESPN


Prediction: Bills Dominate, Cover Easily

Let’s be real, these are not the same Patriots we have watched dominate the AFC East for the last two decades. They are weak on defense and struggle to move the ball on offense. The Bills are a well-oiled machine right now and they have plenty to play for with playoff seeding on the line. Take the Bills laying the points.


Final Score Prediction: Bills win 27-13