Last Updated on June 22, 2020
One of the biggest offseason stories for the Eagles was the curious usage of their second-round pick, taking QB Jalen Hurts. In one sense, it makes sense to get a backup for Carson Wentz, who has only played 16 games in the regular season in two of his four seasons in the NFL. Prior to the draft, Wentz would have been backed up by Josh McCown and Nate Sudfeld. On the other hand, could Hurts have been drafted as a potential successor to Wentz, as he does possess that starter-level upside, especially with his mobility. Nonetheless, as things stand currently, Wentz is set to open up the 2020 NFL Betting season as the starter for the Eagles for the fifth time in his career and we’ll look into his over/under props you can bet on through the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Carson Wentz Passing Yards O/U 3900.5
Wentz was able to remain healthy all throughout the season last year and ended up with 4039 passing yards, which was by far the highest of his career. In 2016, when he also managed to play through all 16 games, Wentz made exactly the same number of pass attempts of 607 but ended up with 3782 yards, a difference of 257. For Wentz to reach the over this upcoming season, he would need to average 243.7 yards. Of his three seasons, he’s averaged less per game in one season, which was back in his rookie year, averaging 236.4. Even when injuries ravaged his season, Wentz has remained extremely consistent throughout his short career.
Aside from drafting a quarterback in the second round, the Eagles seemed set on surrounding Wentz with speed. Using their first-round pick on Jalen Reagor from TCU, be brings 4.47 speed and will be yet another deep threat for Wentz. While he won’t receive heavy volume, Reagor excels in straight-line routes and can pick up big yardage in the process. DeSean Jackson is also coming into this season healthy after playing only three games last season. When he was 17.6 YPR and posted a 154-yard game in Week 1 against the Redskins. These type of deep threats to go with reliable hands of Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery could raise Wentz into an elite level in 2020 if, of course, he can stay healthy, which is always the biggest concern.
One other interesting name to consider to help boost Wentz to the over on this prop is Miles Sanders. Once Jordan Howard was essentially phased out of this offense in the second half, the volume for Sanders propelled and his talent was showcased. After the Week 10 bye, Sanders was averaging 5.1 targets per game after seeing just three through the first nine games. During that second-half, he averaged 6.8 YPR, giving Wentz another valuable weapon in this offense. With the Eagles not putting much competition behind Sanders, he should be in for a plethora of touches each game and continue to be active with catching out of the backfield.
While taking the over on this total feels risky with all of his injury concerns, the Eagles have done their part to surround Wentz with as many weapons as possible to succeed. With the odds set at (-110) on each side, I’m comfortable taking the over.
Carson Wentz Passing Touchdowns O/U 27.5
I was surprised about this number being set as it is. A quick glance at his career stats shows he’s hit the over on this number back in 2017 with 33, which is through just 13 games. He also landed on 27 last year, which would have been a heartbreaking loss if this total was set as it was last season. Nonetheless, I think this number is set where he can hit the over.
Even in his injury-shortened season back in 2018 when he only played 11 games, Wentz was on pace for over 30 touchdowns, as he averaged 1.9 per game. Injuries to his offense were certainly a factor last season but even without names like Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson, Wentz was a half touchdown short of hitting the over. Getting that speed with Reagor will help as well as the emergence of Sanders.
I’m not overly concerned about the Eagles wanting to run the ball more with Sanders taking the top spot in this offense. After the Week 10 bye, he averaged 14 carries per game through eight games. With the number of receivers the Eagles drafted, I truly believe they are looking to see Wentz take more downfield shots and continue to air out the ball. Boston Scott will likely be their goal line back but I still this is going to be a pass-heavy offense throughout the year.
If this number starts to creep up higher, I think we’d have a reason to fade it but as it stands currently, I do like taking the over on the 27.5 total currently on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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