Last Updated on October 5, 2020

  • The Chiefs enter as 10.5-point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook
  • The Chiefs are 2-0 as the favorites against the spread this year
  • The Patriots are 0-1 as underdogs against the spread this year
  • The Chiefs haven’t lost since Nov. 10, 2019 (12 straight victories, including playoffs)

 

In a game that was initially supposed to take place on Sunday afternoon, the Chiefs and Patriots face off on Monday night at 7:05 p.m. ET due to positive coronavirus tests, one of which was from Patriots quarterback Cam Newton. Thus, he won’t play, and Brian Hoyer will likely start in his place.

Either team is coming off a victory. The Patriots defeated the Raiders last week by a score of 36-20 behind two rushing touchdowns from Rex Burkhead. The Chiefs — the current favorites to win the Super Bowl — solidified why they’re arguably the best team in football last Monday night, ousting the Ravens 34-20. Superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes racked up 385 yards and four scores through the air in the victory.

Here’s our Action Rush Preview with information about the matchup, odds, spread, betting angles, and public backing. We’ll also provide a prediction for the game as well as a pick.

 

Chiefs-Patriots Odds Monday Night

It’s not shocking whatsoever how the Chiefs are favorited by a wide margin, considering their talent level along with their ability to put up a noteworthy number of points on the board. The Chiefs currently stand as the 8th-best team in the NFL when it comes to total points per game, averaging 30.3 at the moment. They also sport the third-best offense in the league in regard to total yards per game (433.3 per game through three weeks).

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the total points mark is set at 48.5, and despite Newton not playing, I believe it would be best to take the over in this game. For one, Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy run a high-powered offense that the Ravens couldn’t even contain for 60 minutes. On the other sideline, Bill Belichick will still find a way to score points even without his top quarterback and offensive leader, given the high football I.Q. he possesses. Taking these circumstances into consideration, a 48.5 total-point mark is probably too low.

 

Chiefs-Patriots Preview & Betting Angles

As was mentioned previously, Cam Newton won’t be in the lineup due to his positive COVID-19 test, as he’s certainly the biggest name in the league to have caught the lingering virus. Nonetheless, the legendary Belichick will have his players ready for anything, and the gameplan will still likely be sharp against a tough Chiefs squad. Expect the Patriots to run the ball a significant amount with guys like James White and Rex Burkhead. This will tire the Chiefs defense out and ultimately open up the play-action.

On the other side of the ball, expect the Chiefs to run a more balanced offensive attack with a passing game led by Patrick Mahomes and a ground game led by rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs offense against the Patriots defense should be a decent matchup to witness, considering the Patriots are eighth in the league with 22.0 points allowed per game.

It’ll additionally be intriguing to see how Edwards-Helaire fares against the Patriots rushing defense, a unit currently ranked 17th in the league with 122.3 rushing yards allowed per game. After 138 rushing yards in the season-opening win over the Texans, Edwards-Helaire racked up just 38 and 64 yards on the ground respectively in Weeks 2 and 3, so he could certainly undergo a bounce-back game on Monday night.

The Patriots secondary hasn’t been as dominant thus far compared to the 2019 campaign, currently sitting at 11th in the league. Thus, look for Mahomes to exploit and expose the weaknesses the unit may possess, just like he does most weeks as arguably the league’s top quarterback.

With or without Newton, the Patriots’ talent level isn’t near the Chiefs’ talent level, so Belichick needs to therefore outcoach Andy Reid. The latter won the last meeting between these two teams in December 2019. Will he ultimately increase the streak to two?

 

 

How To Watch Chiefs vs. Patriots Monday Night

  • Date: Monday, Oct. 5
  • Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: KNSS 1330AM/98.7FM (Kansas City), WBZ-FM 98.5FM (Boston)

 

Prop Bets

One team prop bet that really stood out to me was the over-under for total touchdowns scored by the Chiefs. Over-3.5 is placed at +112 while under-3.5 is placed at -148. My guess is the over hits, considering the strength of the Chiefs offense, but it’s tough to believe Belichick allows something like that to occur.

All prop bets courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Total Touchdowns: 

Team Line
Patriots over 1.5 -225
Patriots under 1.5 +165
Chiefs over 3.5 +112
Chiefs under 3.5 -148

 

Touchdown Scorer:

Player First Last To Score
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +500 +500 -175
Travis Kelce +550 +550 -134
Tyreek Hill +650 +650 -115
James White +1300 +1300 +180
Rex Burkhead +1500 +1500 +200
Mecole Hardman +1800 +1800 +300
Patrick Mahomes +1800 +1800 +300
Sammy Watkins +1800 +1800 +300
Julian Edelman +1700 +1700 +250
J.J. Taylor +2000 +2000 +300
N’Keal Harry +2200 +2200 +325

 

Touchdown Passes

Player Over Under
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 (-1000) Under 0.5 (+600)
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 (+125) Under 2.5 (-155)
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 (-195) Under 1.5 (+153)
Brian Hoyer Over 1.5 (+140) Under 1.5 (-177)

 

Rushing Yards

Player Over Under
Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 (-112) Under 19.5 (-112)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 75.5 (-112) Under 75.5 (-112)
Darrel Williams Over 13.5 (-112) Under 13.5 (-112)
Rex Burkhead Over 33.5 (-112) Under 33.5 (-112)

 

Betting Picks & Score Prediction

Take the over on the total points (48.5) in this game, considering how high-powered the Chiefs offense is. I can see Patrick Mahomes really exposing the Patriots secondary, which will ultimately lead to the Chiefs playing their part in getting the total-point mark to at least 49 points.

Taking the Chiefs with the 10.5-point spread may be the move as well, considering the Patriots’ quarterback situation. Newton vs. Mahomes would’ve been a good matchup to watch, but that obviously won’t occur.

Final score prediction: 35-21 Chiefs

Ryan is an experienced sports writer and editor, who's mainly covered the New York Giants and the NFL for Elite Sports NY.He additionally has his own podcast titled "Wide Right Podcast," which is available on all major platforms.