Last Updated on May 8, 2020
“Holy SH*T” would describe the outcome of both AFC divisional playoff games that has now set the stage for the 2020 AFC Championship between the Titans and Chiefs.[lwptoc]
In what has been one of the more unpredictable NFL Playoffs we’ve seen in years, the AFC has been turned upside-down through two weeks of playoff games.
The Titans pulled the monster upset over the Ravens as 10-point underdogs and subsequently moved from 30/1 to 5/1 odds to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs survived a huge scare from the Texans, but in the end rolled in the second half.
Titans Cinderella Run
In the AFC, the playoffs started with the Chiefs, Ravens, and Patriots seemingly being the three teams that have a chance to be there at the end. Of all teams, the Tennessee Titans have changed the entire landscape of the AFC Playoffs by defeating the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens back to back.
Think about how impressive this run has been by Tennessee. They defeated the most successful coach and QB tandem in NFL history in Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the Wild Card round, in New England. Then, they traveled to Baltimore to face a team that was #1 in the NFL in all sorts of categories and records, have the NFL MVP in Lamar Jackson, and a coaching staff filled with experience and know-how.
It did not matter. Derrick Henry has literally put the Titans on his back and carried them to the AFC Championship game. The next test may be the hardest though, as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Chiefs – Titans Odds AFC Championship
The KC Chiefs open as seven-point favorites over the Titans for the 2020 AFC Championship game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
We are expecting this line to come down from seven as the public may not be convinced the Chiefs defense can contain Derrick Henry. Despite vast improvement from the Chiefs‘ defense over the last month, they still struggle to stop the run. With Chris Jones questionable for the AFC Championship, that will be a key piece for the Chiefs if they wish to contain the Titans‘ rushing attack.
One thing is for sure, the Chiefs vs. Titans odds is going to garner a MASSIVE betting handle for player prop bets.
The star power and potential for stat explosions will attract heavy betting action. From Derrick Henry to Patrick Mahomes, to A.J. Brown and all of the Chiefs weapons on offense…this will be a very popular betting market. Expect props, in-game betting, and more to be just as popular (if not more) than the traditional spread and total betting.
Let’s take a look at the spread and total for this weekend’s AFC Championship game with odds from William Hill, DraftKings, and PointsBet.
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Very early public bet numbers from William Hill Sportsbook for AFC Title game:
60% Point Spread tickets on KC
82% Point Spread dollars on TEN
89% Money Line tickets on TEN
65% Money Line dollars on KC
63% Total tickets on OVER
70% Total dollars on OVER
— Jason Ziernicki 🎲🏈➡️💰 (@jziernick) January 13, 2020
AFC Championship Game Details
- Date: Sunday, January 19
- Time: 3:05 p.m. EST
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
- Network: CBS
- Announcers: Jim Nantz (play-by-play), Tony Romo (color analyst), Tracy Wolfson (sideline reporter)
- Radio: KCFX 101.1 FM (Kansas City), WGFX 104.5 The Zone (Tennessee)
- Weather: Mostly Cloudy, 35 degrees, light winds
Over-Under Set for Another Shoot-out?
As we wait for the over-under total from more legal sportsbooks in the U.S., the insane point total from the Texans-Chiefs match-up may have the betting public ready to unload on the “Over” once again. The Titans ball control, dominant offensive display against the Ravens will also feed the possible action on the over.
DraftKings Sportsbook has set the opening over-under at 51 points for the Titans-Chiefs AFC Championship. This number makes a lot of sense as it sure to attract action on both sides.
51 points is at minimum seven touchdowns and a field goal, assuming all PATs are successful one-point tries. Last week, the Chiefs scored 51 points themselves in just three quarters. The offensive explosion is exactly what the Chiefs can do, and there was 82 total points scored in that game.
The Chiefs offense is built much differently than the Ravens, so it will be interesting to see how Mike Vrabel gameplans to stop the Chiefs‘ passing attack. Either way, arguments could be made for the over and the under at 51 points.
Titans – Chiefs Betting Trends & Props
Here are some early betting trends for the Titans vs. Chiefs AFC Championship matchup:
- Home teams are 17-15 ATS in the championship round, while home favorites are 14-12 ATS.
- No. 2 seeds are 10-11 ATS in conference championship games. They are 3-5 ATS at home and 3-4 ATS as home favorites.
- Wild card teams (No. 5/6 seeds) are 3-6 ATS in conference championship games. More specifically, No. 6 seeds are 2-3 ATS.
- Teams that allowed 12 points or less in the divisional round (Titans) are 6-4 ATS in championship games, while teams that score at least 40 points (Chiefs) are 4-6 ATS.
- Teams that win in the divisional round by 15+ points are 7-4 ATS in conference championships. They’re 3-0 ATS when they win by 15+ points as an underdog.
🏈#ChiefsKingdom -7 are seeing 70% of the action
— Action Rush (@ActionRushBets) January 17, 2020
Most Passing Yards Prop Bets
Most Rushing Yards Prop Bets
Most Receiving Yards Prop Bets
Chiefs vs. Titans Prediction AFC Championship
The initial reaction here is the Titans +7.
The biggest issue for the Titans may not be their matchup with KC, but the simple fact of playing three straight road games which takes a toll. They traveled to New England, Baltimore, and now Kansas City.
Travel hurdles aside, Derrick Henry allows the Titans to control tempo and the clock. For that main reason, we are on the Titans +7. The Chiefs will move on to face the winner of the 49ers vs. Packers in Super Bowl 54.
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