2019 was a revelation for Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

After not throwing for more than 23 touchdowns and 3,900 yards in his first three NFL seasons, Prescott threw for 30 touchdowns and nearly 5,000 yards a season ago in a contract year.

When it came time to decide on who to award a long-term extension to, the Cowboys went with Amari Cooper, their star wideout over Prescott and instead placed the franchise tag on him.

He’ll now enter the 2020 season with lofty Super Bowl Odds expectations, top-five odds for NFL MVP, and maybe a chance to make even more money if he is able to deliver.

 

Dallas Cowboys 2020 Overview:

With the NFL 2020 season approaching, the back-and-forth conversations between Prescott’s camp and the Cowboys’ brass have started to sour, with Prescott looking to command the highest average annual value for his position.

Is it a good idea for Prescott to reportedly turn down that kind of money and bet on himself? Perhaps.

Dallas has moved on from the predictable offensive tendencies of longtime Head Coach Jason Garrett and brought in Mike McCarthy to replace him. Dallas also now has given Prescott even more weapons on offense at the skill positions with the addition of first-rounder CeeDee Lamb out of Oklahoma.

 

Dak Prescott Over/Under 4375.5 Passing Yards

Over the course of his career, Prescott has averaged 3,944.5 yards per season, with the statistical outlier of 4,902 yards coming in 2019. Quarterbacks from last season that surpassed the OVER on the number listed for Prescott at DraftKings Sportsbook included Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan.

With an improved cast of offensive weapons around him, Prescott would need to average more than 273 passing yards/game in 2020, and that’s with keeping Ezekiel Elliott fed in the running game. Yet Vegas tends to think Prescott will continue to deploy a downfield attack with a new coaching staff.

I still believe the market is slightly inflated on this number for Prescott, considering his leap a season ago. Even with the narrative setting up that he’s playing for more money, I’m going to fade the public and lean under, even if other components of his game improve.

 

Over/Under 27.5 Passing TD’s

I tend to be more bullish on Prescott surpassing the OVER on passing touchdowns, even over yardage because the number compared to the rest of the field feels far more realistic. Only Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes have higher touchdown totals, with Ben Roethlisberger, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan coming in at the same number as Prescott.

Here’s a key reason. Red zone efficiency.

Prescott will have the trust of his coaching staff to throw the ball in the red zone. This leads to plenty of opportunities to pad his touchdown stats, even if the yardage for big plays doesn’t necessarily follow. Seven quarterbacks a season ago threw for 27 or more touchdowns and if Prescott wants to be paid like a top tier NFL player at his position, that number will need to hit more so than yards. I lean over here.

Ben Heisler
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