Last Updated on October 15, 2020
The 2020 US Presidential Election is one of the craziest races in terms of odds that the gambling world has ever seen. Not only is it a normal election which has an element of craziness, but adding in the state of the US with the coronavirus, protests in summer of 2020, and Donald Trump testing positive from the coronavirus in October 2020, this has been one of the craziest odds markets to follow.
In March, Donald Trump was favored to win the 2020 election at 62%, with Biden as low as 22.2%. As of a month before the election, the tables have turned and Joe Biden is the overwhelming favorite at -225 with Donald Trump trailing at +175 to win. Let’s take a deeper look at a historic election cycle.
2020 Election Odds: Joe Biden Leads at -225
|Presidential Candidate||Odds To Win 2024 Election|
As you can see in the table above, Joe Biden’s lead on the 2020 Election (following the odds) is massive. With his odds at -225, he has a 69.2% chance of winning the election over current President Donald Trump. Based on the odds, Donald Trump (+175) has a 36.4% chance at re-election. What is so interesting about the 2020 election is that much of the public does not believe the odds or the polls, as they were “wrong” in 2016 when President Donald Trump defeated Hilary Clinton. In 2020 since March, Trump has seen a significant drop in his odds. On March 2nd, Trump had a 62.6% chance to be re-elected, but then dropped all the way to a 39.2% chance in the summer before the landslide in September and October after his COVID-19 diagnosis.
Donald Trump Election Odds Fall to +175
The graph above details just how crazy the odds movement has been since March, with the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. President Donald Trump’s current odds are +175 to win the 2020 election, and they have fallen very fast in September and October. Take a look at this table with odds and dates since September has begun:
|Date||Donald Trump Odds|
As you can see, he went from -120 to +110 which is not a large bit of movement. Then in October when he tested positive for COVID-19, his odds fell tremendously and then were removed from the board before re-opening at +165 on October 7th. If the trends are any indication, Donald Trump’s odds look bleak to win the 2020 election. Of course, the odds were incorrect for the 2016 election which has the betting markets and bettors everywhere glued to their screens. Can Donald Trump win the 2020 election? The oddsmakers do not believe so, as Biden is the heavy favorite.
Swing states will tell the story in 2020 Election
Nearly 8 million people have already voted in the 2020 Election. That's 6.5% of the total number who voted in 2016.
More than half of the early votes (4.5M) have come in 12 swing states.
— Seth Kaplan (@Seth_Kaplan) October 13, 2020
As the case is in many elections, the swing states will certainly make the decision for the 2020 election. This is likely what has caused a lot of the Joe Biden odds’ movement, as the general public seems to believe that Biden’s influence is growing in swing states. Here’s a look, per Politics Polls on Twitter:
Trump 46%@MorningConsult, LV, 10/2-11
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 13, 2020
With Biden’s suggested lead in these states, that backs the odds movement we have seen in the last few weeks. Without the swing states, Biden is assumed to have a large lead as early voting begins. With the odds, these polls, and CBS reports of swing states leaning towards Biden, it makes for a very interesting November. For a full look at the 2020 Election odds, check out our election odds tracker here.
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