Last Updated on September 8, 2020

The most polarizing Presidential Election cycle in history was the 2016 election, but that was only because 2020 has not happened yet. With the odds movement, storylines, the pandemic, protests, and much more happening in the US, the predictability of the 2020 Election results are tough, but fun to follow. With the latest polls, news, and odds movements, there is a lot to unpack as we head into election season. The latest has Joe Biden surpassing Donald Trump as the favorite (again), but the odds seemingly change every day. As of the second week of September, Biden as at -120.


Donald Trump’s Odds Up and Down in September, After Recent Poll

A political intelligence data website called Morning Consult released a poll with the latest data on the 2020 election. The summary of it shows that the run that Joe Biden was on in terms of odds movement and popularity has faded. On the contrary, that means that Donald Trump’s odds have improved. In the poll, it discusses that of 4,035 voters, Biden leads 50 percent to 44 percent, which is a six percent difference. Before, there was a 10% difference, so the movement has gone towards Trump’s odds. Here are a look at the numbers before and after the convention, and as of the second week of September:

2020 Election Poll Results Joe Biden Donald Trump Other
Before RNC Convention 52% 42% 6%
After RNC Convention 50% 44% 7%
September 8 Odds 53.7% 45.7%

This is significant, despite just a few percentage points because it goes along with the odds movement in the last few months in terms of trends. In addition, the rough estimate on the “silent majority” is 12%, which is something to note when considering the numbers. In addition, the report shows that Joe Biden received a limited boost after the Democratic National Convention.

Looking forward into September and October, the odds have changed frequently and seems to vary by the day. It will be a crazy few months, without a doubt.


Odds Movement and Trends Favor Joe Biden in September

Given the above information from the polls, it is to no surprise on the odds movement. As you can see in the tweet above, odds movement has been steady, but evident and has just moved in terms of the favorite. Joe Biden was a favorite for quite a time, but Donald Trump then was favored for a few weeks before Biden reclaimed the “lead”. Both candidates we -110 on the last day of August, as the election cycle moves into the most important month for the 2020 election in terms of odds movement, Joe Biden leads at -120 with Trump at even money. Stay up to date with our 2020 election tracker.


Joe Biden 2020 Election Odds

As of late August, Joe Biden’s odds fell to -110 to be the next President of the United States. His odds have steadily declined over the last month or so, after skyrocketing during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. As of early September though, Biden’s odds rose yet again as the favorite and as of September 8th, he sits at -120 to be the next POTUS.

Here is a look at his odds over time:

Date Joe Biden Election Odds
September 8 -120
September 2 +100
August 31 -110
August 27 -125
August 23 -135
August 19 -145
August 2 -180
July 31 -160
July 27 -170
July 25 -165
July 20 -180
July 16 -165
June 22 -137
June 19 -121
June 11 -114
March 10 +120
March 4 +160
March 2 +350
Feb 26 +1700

With September’s odds being the most important month of information, stay tuned for the latest odds movement as we track the 2020 Election.


Donald Trump 2020 Election Odds

Of course, Donald Trump’s odds have been on an entirely different plane compared to Joe Biden. As of September 8th, he is even money. But throughout the summer he was an underdog until just after the Republican National Convention, where he overtook Joe Biden as the betting favorite. Then, the odds jumped in Biden’s favorite again which leads us to the second week of September, where Biden leads -120 to +100, respectively.

Here is a look at Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election over the same timeframe.

Date Trump Election Odds
September 8 +100
September 2 -120
August 31 -110
August 27 +105
August 23 +115
August 19 +125
August 2 +150
July 31 +140
July 27 +150
July 25 +145
July 20 +155
July 16 +145
June 22 +130
June 19 +115
June 11 +110
March 10 -125
March 4 -162
March 2 -167
Feb 26 -162

Check out the latest news and election odds, here.

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