NFL Week 1 is almost upon us and we already have NFL public bets / consensus picks for the first slate of games. The season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers squaring off with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, Sept. 9.

The first week of the season is always a jam-packed affair with non-stop action. There are a number of marquee matchups in Week 1, including a playoff rematch between the Chiefs and Browns plus Sam Darnold facing his former team and replacement. Way back in May we took a look at an extremely early set of public picks for week 1…..obviously, things have changed dramatically.

Let’s take a look at the current betting splits for Week 1 of the NFL season on DraftKings Sportsbook.

 

NFL Week 1 Public Bets Report

Thursday, September 9, 2021
Teams Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
DAL Cowboys +7.5 14% 15% Over 49.0 33% 46% +280 53% 19%
TB Buccaneers -7.5 86% 85% Under 49.0 67% 54% -365 47% 81%
Sunday, September 12, 2021
Teams Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
ARI Cardinals +3 7% 16% Over 51.5 73% 61% +140 69% 24%
TEN Titans -3 93% 84% Under 51.5 27% 39% -160 31% 76%
JAX Jaguars -3 84% 85% Over 45.5 14% 39% -160 89% 73%
HOU Texans +3 16% 15% Under 45.5 86% 61% +140 11% 27%
LA Chargers -1 76% 70% Over 44.0 68% 61% -120 49% 50%
WAS Football Team +1 24% 30% Under 44.0 32% 39% +100 51% 50%
MIN Vikings -3.5 82% 60% Over 48.0 26% 49% -195 35% 66%
CIN Bengals +3.5 18% 40% Under 48.0 74% 51% +165 65% 34%
NY Jets +5 32% 28% Over 43.0 93% 47% +190 59% 19%
CAR Panthers -5 68% 72% Under 43.0 7% 53% -235 41% 81%
PHI Eagles +3.5 59% 52% Over 48.0 59% 64% +175 96% 47%
ATL Falcons -3.5 41% 48% Under 48.0 41% 36% -210 4% 53%
PIT Steelers +6.5 20% 37% Over 50.0 31% 33% +260 71% 21%
BUF Bills -6.5 80% 63% Under 50.0 69% 67% -335 29% 79%
SEA Seahawks -1.5 88% 74% Over 48.5 55% 42% -130 67% 86%
IND Colts +1.5 12% 26% Under 48.5 45% 58% +110 33% 14%
SF 49ers -7.5 69% 69% Over 45.5 42% 44% -380 69% 84%
DET Lions +7.5 31% 31% Under 45.5 58% 56% +290 31% 16%
CLE Browns +6.5 22% 28% Over 53.0 73% 47% +220 61% 12%
KC Chiefs -6.5 78% 72% Under 53.0 27% 53% -275 39% 88%
DEN Broncos -2 71% 63% Over 42.5 33% 50% -135 18% 46%
NY Giants +2 29% 37% Under 42.5 67% 50% +115 82% 54%
GB Packers -3 89% 91% Over 50.0 40% 33% -165 96% 83%
NO Saints +3 11% 9% Under 50.0 60% 67% +145 4% 17%
MIA Dolphins +3 10% 34% Over 44.5 13% 33% +140 51% 51%
NE Patriots -3 90% 66% Under 44.5 87% 67% -160 49% 49%
CHI Bears +7 30% 20% Over 45.0 10% 78% +290 58% 13%
LA Rams -7 70% 80% Under 45.0 90% 22% -380 42% 87%
Monday Night Football Splits
Teams Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
BAL Ravens -4.5 81% 89% Over 51.0 60% 46% -250 69% 87%
LV Raiders +4.5 19% 11% Under 51.0 40% 54% +200 31% 13%

 

 

The Public Loves the Bucs

Surprise, surprise, the public is all-in on Tom Brady and the Bucs in Week 1. They are favored by more than a touchdown, which will usually drive bettors towards the underdog.

However, bettors don’t seem to be scared away by that 7.5 number. Tampa Bay accounts for 86% of the total handle and 85% of the total bets on the spread. It’s a fairly even split between the handle on the moneyline, but that’s to be expected when Tampa is such a heavy favorite.

The NFL betting public doesn’t seem convinced that Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are ready to hit the ground running in Week 1. Only time will tell.

 

Chiefs vs. Browns Rematch

Let’s turn to the AFC for a playoff rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs edged out the Browns 22-17 in the Divisional Round en route to another Super Bowl appearance. Baker Mayfield will have another shot to knock Patrick Mahomes down a peg.

Kansas City is a 6.5-point favorite over Cleveland entering Week 1. The public is putting a majority of the money (78%) and tickets (72%) on the Chiefs anyway.

 

Is Zach Wilson for Real?

If you like narratives in the NFL, this is the game for you. The Jets traded away Sam Darnold in the offseason in order to give Zach Wilson the keys to the kingdom. Darnold will have a chance at revenge in the quickest fashion possible.

The public seems to think Darnold will get that revenge. Although the splits aren’t quite as drastic as we see with the Buccaneers or Chiefs, the public is putting about 70% down on the Panthers when it comes to the handle and tickets.

These are just a few of the interesting matchups in NFL Week 1.

Danny is bringing his years of experience as a New York sportswriter to the Action Rush team. He’s spent time covering just about every professional team in New York for Elite Sports NY. Whether it’s writing, podcasting, video content, or anything in between, Danny has done it all.