Last Updated on August 24, 2021
NFL Week 1 is almost upon us and we already have NFL public bets / consensus picks for the first slate of games. The season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers squaring off with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, Sept. 9.
The first week of the season is always a jam-packed affair with non-stop action. There are a number of marquee matchups in Week 1, including a playoff rematch between the Chiefs and Browns plus Sam Darnold facing his former team and replacement. Way back in May we took a look at an extremely early set of public picks for week 1…..obviously, things have changed dramatically.
Let’s take a look at the current betting splits for Week 1 of the NFL season on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 1 Public Bets Report
| Thursday, September 9, 2021 | |||||||||
| Teams | Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
| DAL Cowboys | +7.5 | 14% | 15% | Over 49.0 | 33% | 46% | +280 | 53% | 19% |
| TB Buccaneers | -7.5 | 86% | 85% | Under 49.0 | 67% | 54% | -365 | 47% | 81% |
| Sunday, September 12, 2021 | |||||||||
| Teams | Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
| ARI Cardinals | +3 | 7% | 16% | Over 51.5 | 73% | 61% | +140 | 69% | 24% |
| TEN Titans | -3 | 93% | 84% | Under 51.5 | 27% | 39% | -160 | 31% | 76% |
| JAX Jaguars | -3 | 84% | 85% | Over 45.5 | 14% | 39% | -160 | 89% | 73% |
| HOU Texans | +3 | 16% | 15% | Under 45.5 | 86% | 61% | +140 | 11% | 27% |
| LA Chargers | -1 | 76% | 70% | Over 44.0 | 68% | 61% | -120 | 49% | 50% |
| WAS Football Team | +1 | 24% | 30% | Under 44.0 | 32% | 39% | +100 | 51% | 50% |
| MIN Vikings | -3.5 | 82% | 60% | Over 48.0 | 26% | 49% | -195 | 35% | 66% |
| CIN Bengals | +3.5 | 18% | 40% | Under 48.0 | 74% | 51% | +165 | 65% | 34% |
| NY Jets | +5 | 32% | 28% | Over 43.0 | 93% | 47% | +190 | 59% | 19% |
| CAR Panthers | -5 | 68% | 72% | Under 43.0 | 7% | 53% | -235 | 41% | 81% |
| PHI Eagles | +3.5 | 59% | 52% | Over 48.0 | 59% | 64% | +175 | 96% | 47% |
| ATL Falcons | -3.5 | 41% | 48% | Under 48.0 | 41% | 36% | -210 | 4% | 53% |
| PIT Steelers | +6.5 | 20% | 37% | Over 50.0 | 31% | 33% | +260 | 71% | 21% |
| BUF Bills | -6.5 | 80% | 63% | Under 50.0 | 69% | 67% | -335 | 29% | 79% |
| SEA Seahawks | -1.5 | 88% | 74% | Over 48.5 | 55% | 42% | -130 | 67% | 86% |
| IND Colts | +1.5 | 12% | 26% | Under 48.5 | 45% | 58% | +110 | 33% | 14% |
| SF 49ers | -7.5 | 69% | 69% | Over 45.5 | 42% | 44% | -380 | 69% | 84% |
| DET Lions | +7.5 | 31% | 31% | Under 45.5 | 58% | 56% | +290 | 31% | 16% |
| CLE Browns | +6.5 | 22% | 28% | Over 53.0 | 73% | 47% | +220 | 61% | 12% |
| KC Chiefs | -6.5 | 78% | 72% | Under 53.0 | 27% | 53% | -275 | 39% | 88% |
| DEN Broncos | -2 | 71% | 63% | Over 42.5 | 33% | 50% | -135 | 18% | 46% |
| NY Giants | +2 | 29% | 37% | Under 42.5 | 67% | 50% | +115 | 82% | 54% |
| GB Packers | -3 | 89% | 91% | Over 50.0 | 40% | 33% | -165 | 96% | 83% |
| NO Saints | +3 | 11% | 9% | Under 50.0 | 60% | 67% | +145 | 4% | 17% |
| MIA Dolphins | +3 | 10% | 34% | Over 44.5 | 13% | 33% | +140 | 51% | 51% |
| NE Patriots | -3 | 90% | 66% | Under 44.5 | 87% | 67% | -160 | 49% | 49% |
| CHI Bears | +7 | 30% | 20% | Over 45.0 | 10% | 78% | +290 | 58% | 13% |
| LA Rams | -7 | 70% | 80% | Under 45.0 | 90% | 22% | -380 | 42% | 87% |
| Monday Night Football Splits | |||||||||
| Teams | Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
| BAL Ravens | -4.5 | 81% | 89% | Over 51.0 | 60% | 46% | -250 | 69% | 87% |
| LV Raiders | +4.5 | 19% | 11% | Under 51.0 | 40% | 54% | +200 | 31% | 13% |
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The Public Loves the Bucs
Surprise, surprise, the public is all-in on Tom Brady and the Bucs in Week 1. They are favored by more than a touchdown, which will usually drive bettors towards the underdog.
However, bettors don’t seem to be scared away by that 7.5 number. Tampa Bay accounts for 86% of the total handle and 85% of the total bets on the spread. It’s a fairly even split between the handle on the moneyline, but that’s to be expected when Tampa is such a heavy favorite.
The NFL betting public doesn’t seem convinced that Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are ready to hit the ground running in Week 1. Only time will tell.
Chiefs vs. Browns Rematch
Let’s turn to the AFC for a playoff rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs edged out the Browns 22-17 in the Divisional Round en route to another Super Bowl appearance. Baker Mayfield will have another shot to knock Patrick Mahomes down a peg.
Kansas City is a 6.5-point favorite over Cleveland entering Week 1. The public is putting a majority of the money (78%) and tickets (72%) on the Chiefs anyway.
Is Zach Wilson for Real?
If you like narratives in the NFL, this is the game for you. The Jets traded away Sam Darnold in the offseason in order to give Zach Wilson the keys to the kingdom. Darnold will have a chance at revenge in the quickest fashion possible.
The public seems to think Darnold will get that revenge. Although the splits aren’t quite as drastic as we see with the Buccaneers or Chiefs, the public is putting about 70% down on the Panthers when it comes to the handle and tickets.
These are just a few of the interesting matchups in NFL Week 1.
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