With the MLB All Star break beginning, that means tonight is the Home Run Derby. With legal sports betting growing by the day, more and more prop betting markets become available for bettors. The Home Run Derby is no exception, with dozens of potential wagers being available on the derby. MLB bettors have already had plenty of money wagered on the Derby, as there have been odds movement on many markets, including this popular prop surrounding HR distance.
Let’s take a look at one of the most popular betting props for tonight’s HR Derby, betting the over/under for each player’s average distance. There will be some long home runs tonight, and you can bet on that.
Bet the Over/Under on Home Run Distance
The Home Run Derby presents a wealth of betting props, picking a winner, and something that is definitely a fun betting market to follow. Here is a look at the odds for each hitter and the over/under for average home run distance.
| Player | Odds to Win Home Run Derby | Over/Under Distance at DraftKings |
| Shohei Ohtani | +260 | 499.5 |
| Joey Gallo | +450 | 504.5 |
| Pete Alonso | +500 | 498.5 |
| Matt Olson | +580 | 493.5 |
| Salvador Perez | +800 | 489.5 |
| Juan Soto | +800 | 491.5 |
| Trevor Story | +800 | 494.5 |
| Trey Mancini | +1300 | 492.5 |
Betting on each batter’s average distance is an awesome betting market available at DraftKings, and these numbers are massive. As you can see, the lowest projected average home ruin distance is 489.5 feet, which is nearly 75 feet more than the average home run in the MLB. This is due to Coors Field and other factors, but the point remains that we will see some massive home runs tonight.
You can also bet on other HR Derby props, including:
- Longest HR
- Player to hit the longest HR
- Exact Outcome
- Handedness of Winner
- League of Winner
- and more
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Public Betting Info – Longest HR Prop Splits
Here is a look at the public betting information from DraftKings on how bettors are wagering on who will hit the furthest home run in the Home Run Derby.
|
MLB HR Derby 2021 Player With Longest HR Splits |
|||
|
Player |
Odds |
% of Handle |
% of Bets |
|
Shohei Ohtani |
+450 |
58% |
47% |
|
Joey Gallo |
+240 |
15% |
16% |
|
Juan Soto |
+1000 |
7% |
10% |
|
Matt Olson |
+825 |
6% |
6% |
|
Pete Alonso |
+475 |
6% |
10% |
|
Trevor Story |
+650 |
3% |
5% |
|
Salvador Perez |
+1100 |
3% |
5% |
|
Trey Mancini |
+900 |
1% |
2% |
2021 Home Run Derby Odds
Here are the latest odds to win the 2021 Home Run Derby, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
| Player | Odds to Win Home Run Derby |
| Shohei Ohtani | +260 |
| Joey Gallo | +450 |
| Pete Alonso | +500 |
| Matt Olson | +580 |
| Salvador Perez | +800 |
| Juan Soto | +800 |
| Trevor Story | +800 |
| Trey Mancini | +1300 |
| Odds courtesy of DraftKings |
Why are the projected distances so far for the Home Run Derby?
As you can see, the difference between an average home run for each player and tonight’s distance props for average is quite the disparity. Why is that?
Baseball fans everywhere know the difference between Coors Field and regular stadiums, as the ball travels farther in the thinner air due to the altitude. For tonight’s HR Derby, there appears to be no humidor to keep the baseballs regulated which means the ball will absolutely rocket out of the park. Expect there to be records of all kinds set tonight for the HR derby, especially for distance. The value on these props could be on the under at first glance given the difference, but do not be fooled because of the Coors Field + humidor effect.
On @DKSportsbook, you can bet the over/under on the longest HR hit by each player. I put together a spreadsheet with 2021 average distance, the O/U line and the difference between the two. pic.twitter.com/7dFOYV5GhL
— Steve Buchanan (@SBuchanan24) July 12, 2021
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