Last Updated on September 24, 2020

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins for Week 3 Thursday Night Football.
  • The Dolphins have gone over the total points in their last five games in Florida.
  • The Jaguars are 4-0 in their last four games at home on Thursday night.
  • Miami is 0-2 as the underdog ATS in 2020.

 

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins are in the unenviable spot of having to play on a short week. But on the bright side, both teams are coming off losses in Week 2 so they can change the narrative on their seasons.

The Jaguars were able to upset the Colts in Week 1 but fell to the Tennessee Titans in the final minutes in Week 2. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are 0-2 after two divisional losses. Their first non-division opponent gives Miami a chance to secure their first win of the season.

Here is our Action Rush Thursday Night Football betting guide complete with the best odds, prop bets, and analysis for the start of Week 2 of the NFL season.

 

Jaguars – Dolphins Odds Week 3

The Jaguars are slight favorites coming into Week 3. Jacksonville is a 3-point favorite on the spread and -154 on the moneyline. Those moneyline odds imply that they have around a 60% chance of winning on Thursday. They are far from a sure thing.

The total points are set to 48 and both teams have quarterbacks who can play really well – or play really poorly. Gardner Minshew is a young gunslinger who threw for 339 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions in his last start. Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been putting up those kinds of numbers for years. This definitely has the potential to go over, but that’s only if Minshew and Fitzpatrick can limit the turnovers in crucial spots.

 

 

TNF Preview & Betting Angles

As is the case in so many NFL games, whichever quarterback plays better is likely to lead his team to victory. The problem with following that strategy with this game is that both quarterbacks are ridiculously volatile. It’s tough to predict how well Minshew and Fitzpatrick are going to play from week to week.

For that reason alone, let’s look to some of the other areas of these teams to try and suss out who has the advantage. The scoring defenses are just about even with the Dolphins (26.0) holding the slight edge over the Jaguars (26.5) in that regard.

However, Miami is having a ton of trouble stopping the run, dating all the way back to last season. The Dolphins allowed over 100 yards in both their games so far last season and were 27th in the NFL in rush defense last season. Jaguars running back James Robinson is averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the season and if he can help establish the running game, that could open up the passing attack for Minshew.

The Dolphins and Jaguars are 3-1 on hitting the over so far this season, but it’s always difficult to predict these short weeks. Will having less practice time this week impact either team negatively? For one, the short week can be tough on a young quarterback like Minshew. That would mean the under looks like a safe bet, but not so fast.

Miami is likely to be without star cornerback Byron Jones due to the short week. He’s dealing with a groin injury that forced an early exit from his Week 2 game against the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen took advantage of his absence to the tune of 400 yards and four touchdowns.

 

 

Prop Bets

There are a bunch of team and game props out for bettors. “To Score First and Win” is one of the most fun props out there and there is solid value all around on that one this week.

Jaguars to score first and win:
Yes +155
No -200

Dolphins to score first and win:
Yes +260
No -360

As for player markets, there are a ton of great options for Week 3 of Thursday Night Football. All props are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) 22.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 267.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100)
Gardner Minshew (JAX) 21.5 (Ov -136 | Un +110) 262.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -152 | Un +122)
Running Backs Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
James Robinson (JAX) 17.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 67.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 81.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125)
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 9.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 39.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 55.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)
Chris Thompson (JAX) N/A 10.5 (Ov -122 | Un +100) N/A
Gardner Minshew (JAX) N/A 17.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) N/A 15.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Wide Receiver / Tight End Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
DJ Chark (JAX) 3.5 (Ov -175 | Un +138) 52.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -106)
Keelan Cole (JAX) 3.5 (Ov -122 | Un +100) 47.5 (Ov +100 | Un -124) N/A
Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAX) 2.5 (Ov -139 | Un +112) 33.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 17.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)
Tyler Eifert (JAX) 2.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 29.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Myles Gaskin 2.5 (Ov -148 | Un -125) 16.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
DeVante Parker (MIA) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -120) 60.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 23.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125)
Preston Williams (MIA) 3.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100) 44.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100) 21.5 (Ov -108 | Un -118)
Mike Gesicki 3.5 (Ov -167 | Un +134) 49.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 19.5 (Ov -128 | Un +100)

 

How To Watch Jaguars vs. Dolphins Thursday

This game is airing exclusively on NFL Network with a FOX crew led by Joe Buck on play-by-play. Buck will be flanked by Troy Aikman as the game analyst, and Erin Andrews and Kristina Pink as the sideline reporters. As always, the Thursday Night Football game will kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET.

 

Betting Picks & Score Prediction

The over-under seems awfully low for these two quarterbacks. On one hand, it feels like a trap, but on the other, go with your gut. The injury to Jones is another reason to expect this game to fly over the total points. Take the over at 48.

The Jaguars are the better team and should cover the spread, but Thursday games are tough to predict and the lack of a true home-field advantage is scaring me away from taking Jacksonville.

 

Final score prediction: Jaguars 28-27

 

Danny is bringing his years of experience as a New York sportswriter to the Action Rush team. He’s spent time covering just about every professional team in New York for Elite Sports NY. Whether it’s writing, podcasting, video content, or anything in between, Danny has done it all.