Last Updated on June 22, 2020
According to betting markets, Joe Biden is looking like the clear favorite to beat Donald Trump in the 2020 election. While Trump has long been the favorite to beat Biden in November, the 2020 election betting odds seem to be turning in favor of Biden.
In fact, the former Vice President is surging ahead after trailing President Trump by eight points in May, according to Real Clear Politics. On May 26, 2020, Trump (50.3%) held an eight-point lead over Biden (42.3%) as it relates to betting odds. Nearly a month later, Biden (54.3%) holds a massive double-digit lead over Trump (39.4%).
PredictIt, which is a New Zealand-based prediction market has Biden with a 15-point lead over the incumbent. This model is trending in the same direction that Real Clear Politics is moving. Trump held a fairly comfortable lead until late May, but Biden is seeing a massive surge in recent weeks.
— PredictIt (@PredictIt) June 21, 2020
Factors That Could Change The Election
There are many factors that are contributing to Biden’s surge and the complete turnaround of the 2020 election odds in general. For one, the coronavirus pandemic has hit the US harder than any country in the world. The US is leading in confirmed cases and coronavirus-related deaths. Not to mention, a second wave of COVID-19 is sweeping through states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona. The pandemic is far from over and it only hurts Trump’s chances at re-election in the long run.
Through most of April and May, Trump was able to stay ahead of Biden despite the coronavirus, but the widespread protests in response to the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis Police are likely playing a factor in Trump’s free fall. This period of civil unrest is undoubtedly hurting Trump’s re-election chances, even as he touts himself as the “law and order” candidate.
Who Biden pegs as his Vice President will be another major factor. Biden’s campaign has pledged to nominate a minority woman as his running mate and California Senator Kamala Harris is currently the heavy favorite. Val Demings and Susan Rice appear to be in the mix as well.