Last Updated on September 30, 2020

President Odds 2020


The 2020 election has certainly been, and will continue to be, a wild ride. On Thursday, September 29th was the first debate between the two candidates for POTUS in Donald Trump and Joe Biden. While the debate can be argued one way or the other until the end of time, one thing is for sure: the odds have moved. Joe Biden’s odds to become the next President of the United States rose after the first presidential debate. As Darren Rovell tweeted (below), UK markets have shown dramatic increases in Biden’s chances to win after the debate. Let’s take a look at how the first debate changed the odds, and how the race will look going forward.


Joe Biden’s Odds Rise after First Presidential Debate

The two candidates certainly went back and forth at the debates, and then again the morning after on twitter. Either way, Joe Biden’s election odds have increased in terms of being the next President. Here is a look at how the odds looked before and after the debates. While Biden’s odds “only” went up by three points, with Trump’s falling…Biden’s lead became more comfortable as far as odds are concerned.

Candidate Post Debate Before Debate
Joe Biden -140 -137

Keep an eye on Biden’s odds as the week goes on, and if there are more debates as the odds could change again. Let’s see how the odds affected President Trump’s re-election odds.


Donald Trump’s Election Odds Fall after Debate

The first Presidential Debate was not kind to President Trump’s odds to win the election, as the oddsmakers felt that he “lost” the debate. Trump’s odds fell from +110 to +137 after the debates, and now has the longest odds since August 6th where he was +145 to win the election.

Candidate Post Debate Before Debate
Donald Trump +137 +110

With just over a month until the election, the next few weeks will be essential for Donald Trump’s election odds. He trended down during the beginning of the coronavirus, then trended up leading to the first debate. Now, he will need to trend back up again to get back into the race as far as odds are concerned. Remember that in the 2016 election, the odds were all over the place during the month before the election so this will be certainly be a market to watch.


2020 Election Odds Movement Post Debate

As you can see, President Trump and former Vice President Biden have seen their election odds flip back and forth since March. Before the coronavirus pandemic, Biden was as high as +1700 (in February), then once it became clear he was to be the Democratic candidate he took the late after the pandemic began. As you can see, Biden was the favorite until the summer began when Trump took the lead in terms of odds. Since September has begun, the odds have flipped multiple times until the last few weeks.

After the first debate, Donald Trump sits at +137 to win the election, and Joe Biden is the favorite at -140.

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