As we continue to wait for sports to come back, specifically football, the DraftKings Sportsbook has released a number of props you can bet on for the 2020 season. Of those props, you can bet on the over/under for passing yards for the league’s quarterbacks. In this piece, we’ll examine Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who is set to play in his second season in the NFL. With a new number one target in DeAndre Hopkins, who was acquired via trade with the Texans for David Johnson and a second-round pick.
Over or Under 3950.5 Passing Yards?
Set for $4K Yards?
The current total for Murray is currently set at 3950.5. For reference, Murray threw for 3722 last season, averaging 232.6 yards per game. It certainly feels like a low number when you think of the acquisition of Hopkins, who 1165 receiving yards of his own with the Texans through 15 games, would help put Murray over the top.
Making a case for the over doesn’t really take much. Even taking out Hopkins, the Cardinals have some good offensive weapons as well. Larry Fitzgerald finished just outside the top 10 in YAC (yards after catch) last season with 362. The beast known as Michael Thomas led the league with 588. Fitz also ranked 10th in Reception% at 72.1. That number represents the percentage of targets caught, which was once again lead by Thomas at 82.8. Hopkins was right there with Fitz, tied for 11th at 71.2% while his YAC ranked 10th overall with 384. While Hopkins has since moved on from one of the better deep ball passers in Deshaun Watson, Murray only threw two turnover-worthy deep throws last season on 62 attempts, according to Pro Football Focus. Of his deep throws, which are measured on pass attempts of more than 20 yards, Murray had a 42% completion percentage and a 94.5 passer rating.
We also have truly seen what players like Andy Isabella can produce. You may remember Isabella from his 4.31 40-yard dash ahead of the 2019 draft. Despite only making nine catches last season, Isabella racked up 189 yards, good for an average of 21 YPC. Coach Kliff Kingsbury stated that the team passed on receivers in the draft this season because they remain intrigued with what they currently have, which includes Isabella.
Case for the Under
While we have plenty to like about taking the over, we do have to consider the under as well. The Cardinals offensive line has not been the strongest and Murray ended up taking 48 sacks last season, which was tied with Matt Ryan for the third-most in the league. Before Murray even take a snap in the NFL, we heard plenty of chatter about his durability in the NFL. The Cardinals certainly need to prioritize protecting Murray. They’ve addressed that need by selecting Josh Jones out of Houston in the third round to help strengthen a clear weakness.
One aspect to also consider is the schedule. The Cardinals’ strength of schedule lands around 16th in the league after facing he eighth-hardest schedule in 2019. Where it really gets tough is between Weeks 10-13, especially from a defensive standpoint. The Cardinals will host the Bills, who allowed 3123 passing yards last season, which was ranked as the fourth-lowest in the league. From there, they’ll see the Seahawks, Patriots and Rams. Overall, the Cardinals will see some teams that improved their secondaries this offseason, including the Lions in Week 3 and the Dolphins in Week 8. While it’s not totally the reason to consider the under, it certainly does make you sit back and think about it a bit more.
In the end, I feel as though Murray and the pass-heavy, fast-paced Cardinals will be in a very good position to hit the over on his total. As I stated earlier, we’re only looking for 229 more yards than 2019. The addition of Hopkins should easily help push him over that point. Currently, the odds are set at (-110) on both the over and the under, indicating that the DKSB feels this is a very fair line for the second-year quarterback. Personally, I’m ready to take the over on Murray.