Entering Week 6 of the NFL season, the lines and betting splits over at DraftKings Sportsbook tell a few different stories this week. Bettors are still in the midst of a love affair with overs, which makes complete sense given the high frequency of overs hitting so far this year. It looked like that tide was turning through the first seven games of Week 5, but things returned to form in the final seven games of the season.

This 7-7 over-under record during Week 5 could signify that sportsbooks have finally figured things out during this bizarre 2020 season. Through the first few weeks of the season, overs were coming in at a high rate. That’s a big part of why we’re regularly seeing the total points set in the 50s for NFL games this year.

The NFL public money is heavy on the under in this week’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings. Although just 41% of bet tickets are on the under (54.5), those tickets account for 66% of the total handle.

Once again, bettors are favoring the favorites when it comes to spread line betting with one major exception. The Cincinnati Bengals are eight-point underdogs against the Indianapolis Colts, but they are hauling in a majority of the handle and bet tickets, 69% and 60%, respectively.

The emergence of rookie quarterback Joe Burrow is likely a big factor in the public’s interest in the Bengals. Although he hasn’t been perfect in his first five games of his NFL career, he’s flashing the ability to move the ball down the field. His biggest issue has been avoiding sacks. Burrow leads the NFL in sacks (22) and sack yardage (155) this season.

The decline of Philip Rivers is likely another reason for the public favoring the Bengals. The veteran quarterback has more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) this season even though he’s completing upwards of 70% of his passes. Rivers has always been known as a gunslinger, but he no longer has the arm strength to get away with some of the questionable throws he makes.

The most overwhelming public picks on the spread line this week are the Lions at -3.5 (99% of total handle), Packers at -1 (95%), and Chiefs at -3.5 (95%).

 

NFL Week 6 Picks DraftKings Sportsbook

Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
ATL Falcons 4 12% 21% Over 54.5 34% 59% 175 26% 26%
MIN Vikings -4 88% 79% Under 54.5 66% 41% -200 74% 74%
BAL Ravens -7.5 82% 76% Over 47.5 92% 89% -335 85% 90%
PHI Eagles 7.5 18% 24% Under 47.5 8% 11% 285 15% 10%
CHI Bears 1.5 74% 70% Over 45.0 72% 83% 106 85% 74%
CAR Panthers -1.5 26% 30% Under 45.0 28% 17% -121 15% 26%
CIN Bengals 7.5 69% 60% Over 46.5 45% 60% 300 22% 16%
IND Colts -7.5 31% 40% Under 46.5 55% 40% -360 78% 84%
CLE Browns 3 51% 52% Over 51.0 94% 85% 155 63% 45%
PIT Steelers -3 49% 48% Under 51.0 6% 15% -177 37% 55%
DEN Broncos 10 36% 51% Over 45.0 33% 49% 375 15% 8%
NE Patriots -10 64% 49% Under 45.0 67% 51% -455 85% 92%
DET Lions -3.5 99% 66% Over 54.5 49% 43% -177 62% 64%
JAX Jaguars 3.5 1% 34% Under 54.5 51% 57% 155 38% 36%
HOU Texans 3.5 8% 9% Over 53.0 28% 72% 163 9% 16%
TEN Titans -3.5 92% 91% Under 53.0 72% 28% -186 91% 84%
WAS Football Team 2.5 71% 63% Over 43.0 29% 37% 120 61% 51%
NY Giants -2.5 29% 37% Under 43.0 47% 22% -136 39% 49%
MIA Dolphins -9.5 91% 80% Under 47.0 41% 36% -400 84% 92%
NY Jets 9.5 9% 20% Over 47.0 59% 64% 335 16% 8%
TB Buccaneers 1 5% 10% Under 55.0 2% 8% -105 24% 24%
GB Packers -1 95% 90% Over 55.0 98% 92% -108 76% 76%
SF 49ers 3 15% 16% Under 51.5 14% 31% 148 12% 17%
LA Rams -3 85% 84% Over 51.5 86% 69% -167 88% 83%
KC Chiefs -3.5 94% 94% Over 57.5 68% 73% -195 89% 89%
BUF Bills 3.5 6% 6% Under 57.5 32% 27% 170 11% 11%
ARI Cardinals -1.5 47% 72% Over 55.0 90% 74% -120 57% 56%
DAL Cowboys 1.5 53% 28% Under 55.0 10% 26% 106 43% 44%
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