Entering Week 6 of the NFL season, the lines and betting splits over at DraftKings Sportsbook tell a few different stories this week. Bettors are still in the midst of a love affair with overs, which makes complete sense given the high frequency of overs hitting so far this year. It looked like that tide was turning through the first seven games of Week 5, but things returned to form in the final seven games of the season.
UNDERS started 6-1 in Wk 5
Then OVERS went 6-1 to close the week
7-7
— Joe Ostrowski (@JoeO670) October 14, 2020
This 7-7 over-under record during Week 5 could signify that sportsbooks have finally figured things out during this bizarre 2020 season. Through the first few weeks of the season, overs were coming in at a high rate. That’s a big part of why we’re regularly seeing the total points set in the 50s for NFL games this year.
The NFL public money is heavy on the under in this week’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings. Although just 41% of bet tickets are on the under (54.5), those tickets account for 66% of the total handle.
Once again, bettors are favoring the favorites when it comes to spread line betting with one major exception. The Cincinnati Bengals are eight-point underdogs against the Indianapolis Colts, but they are hauling in a majority of the handle and bet tickets, 69% and 60%, respectively.
This could be quite a weekend for the books…..
Highest Betting Handle for #NFL Week 6 at William Hill Sportsbooks:
94% KC -4.5 (Buff)
93% Tenn -3.5 (Hou)
92% GB -1 (TB)
89% LA Rams -3 (SF)
87% Minn -4 (ATL)
86% Balt -8.5 (PHL)
— Jason Ziernicki 🎲🏈➡️💰 (@jziernick) October 16, 2020
The emergence of rookie quarterback Joe Burrow is likely a big factor in the public’s interest in the Bengals. Although he hasn’t been perfect in his first five games of his NFL career, he’s flashing the ability to move the ball down the field. His biggest issue has been avoiding sacks. Burrow leads the NFL in sacks (22) and sack yardage (155) this season.
The decline of Philip Rivers is likely another reason for the public favoring the Bengals. The veteran quarterback has more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) this season even though he’s completing upwards of 70% of his passes. Rivers has always been known as a gunslinger, but he no longer has the arm strength to get away with some of the questionable throws he makes.
The most overwhelming public picks on the spread line this week are the Lions at -3.5 (99% of total handle), Packers at -1 (95%), and Chiefs at -3.5 (95%).
NFL Week 6 Picks DraftKings Sportsbook
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
| ATL Falcons | 4 | 12% | 21% | Over 54.5 | 34% | 59% | 175 | 26% | 26% |
| MIN Vikings | -4 | 88% | 79% | Under 54.5 | 66% | 41% | -200 | 74% | 74% |
| BAL Ravens | -7.5 | 82% | 76% | Over 47.5 | 92% | 89% | -335 | 85% | 90% |
| PHI Eagles | 7.5 | 18% | 24% | Under 47.5 | 8% | 11% | 285 | 15% | 10% |
| CHI Bears | 1.5 | 74% | 70% | Over 45.0 | 72% | 83% | 106 | 85% | 74% |
| CAR Panthers | -1.5 | 26% | 30% | Under 45.0 | 28% | 17% | -121 | 15% | 26% |
| CIN Bengals | 7.5 | 69% | 60% | Over 46.5 | 45% | 60% | 300 | 22% | 16% |
| IND Colts | -7.5 | 31% | 40% | Under 46.5 | 55% | 40% | -360 | 78% | 84% |
| CLE Browns | 3 | 51% | 52% | Over 51.0 | 94% | 85% | 155 | 63% | 45% |
| PIT Steelers | -3 | 49% | 48% | Under 51.0 | 6% | 15% | -177 | 37% | 55% |
| DEN Broncos | 10 | 36% | 51% | Over 45.0 | 33% | 49% | 375 | 15% | 8% |
| NE Patriots | -10 | 64% | 49% | Under 45.0 | 67% | 51% | -455 | 85% | 92% |
| DET Lions | -3.5 | 99% | 66% | Over 54.5 | 49% | 43% | -177 | 62% | 64% |
| JAX Jaguars | 3.5 | 1% | 34% | Under 54.5 | 51% | 57% | 155 | 38% | 36% |
| HOU Texans | 3.5 | 8% | 9% | Over 53.0 | 28% | 72% | 163 | 9% | 16% |
| TEN Titans | -3.5 | 92% | 91% | Under 53.0 | 72% | 28% | -186 | 91% | 84% |
| WAS Football Team | 2.5 | 71% | 63% | Over 43.0 | 29% | 37% | 120 | 61% | 51% |
| NY Giants | -2.5 | 29% | 37% | Under 43.0 | 47% | 22% | -136 | 39% | 49% |
| MIA Dolphins | -9.5 | 91% | 80% | Under 47.0 | 41% | 36% | -400 | 84% | 92% |
| NY Jets | 9.5 | 9% | 20% | Over 47.0 | 59% | 64% | 335 | 16% | 8% |
| TB Buccaneers | 1 | 5% | 10% | Under 55.0 | 2% | 8% | -105 | 24% | 24% |
| GB Packers | -1 | 95% | 90% | Over 55.0 | 98% | 92% | -108 | 76% | 76% |
| SF 49ers | 3 | 15% | 16% | Under 51.5 | 14% | 31% | 148 | 12% | 17% |
| LA Rams | -3 | 85% | 84% | Over 51.5 | 86% | 69% | -167 | 88% | 83% |
| KC Chiefs | -3.5 | 94% | 94% | Over 57.5 | 68% | 73% | -195 | 89% | 89% |
| BUF Bills | 3.5 | 6% | 6% | Under 57.5 | 32% | 27% | 170 | 11% | 11% |
| ARI Cardinals | -1.5 | 47% | 72% | Over 55.0 | 90% | 74% | -120 | 57% | 56% |
| DAL Cowboys | 1.5 | 53% | 28% | Under 55.0 | 10% | 26% | 106 | 43% | 44% |
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