NFL Win Totals 2021: Chiefs and Bucs lead, Titans have heavy action

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The NFL season is officially here, but futures are able to be wagered into the season in many cases.

In the NFL offseason, the sports betting world focuses on a few futures markets. One of the most popular is the win totals market, which looks at each team and their prospective win totals for the upcoming season. With the increase in legal sports betting, these markets tend to release earlier and earlier.

NFL futures betting is becoming more and more popular with the rise of the legal sports betting industry in the United States. As the number of bettors grows at legal sportsbooks, the ability to bet on NFL futures will grow as well. DraftKings Sportsbook has posted its 2021 NFL Win Total odds already ahead of the NFL Draft and even free agency.

 

 

Timeline of NFL Totals Movement

With NFL totals being released early in the offseason, the lines move and some move quite heavily. Here is a timeline of which teams moved during the offseason, and how much.

  • September 2nd, 2021 – With one week until the regular season, win totals settle to their final lines with Chiefs leading at 12.5.
  • August 26th, 2021 – With just two weeks until the regular season, Titans total is still at 9, but has -165 juice.
  • Preseason Week 2, 2021 – Packers juice increases again to -150, but still set at 10 wins on DraftKings.
  • Preseason Week 1, 2021 – Packers win total remains at 10, but juiced up to -140 on DraftKings.
  • August 5th, 2021 – Hall of Fame Game starts NFL preseason, Chiefs lead with 12.5 win total.
  • August 2nd, 2021 – Colts win total falls to nine (9) after Carson Wentz news.
  • July 27th, 2021 – NFC North win total shifts after Aaron Rodgers news.
  • July 20th, 2021 – Texans win total falls to 4.
  • July – NFL win totals remain unchanged.
  • Late June – NFL win totals remain unchanged.
  • June 12th 2021 – Broncos fall back to 8.5, Texans fall to 4.
  • May 18th 2021 – Vikings total jumps from 8.5 to 9.
  • May 3rd 2021 – Broncos win total rises after Rodgers speculation.
  • April 30th 2021 – Bears, Vikings, and Browns move a half game each.
  • APR 29th 2021 – NFC North totals taken down after Rodgers news.
  • April 14th 2021 – Chiefs and Bucs totals lead the way after initial betting.
  • April 3rd 2021 – Win totals posted at BetMGM Sportsbook.
  • March 30th 2021 – Win totals posted at DraftKings Sportsbook.

 

NFL Over-Under Team Win Totals

A look at the latest NFL win totals, from various legal sportsbooks.

[metabet_core_futures_board league=”nfl” site_id=”actionrush” hide_consensus=”yes” style=”classic” market=”nfl_season_wins” hide_location=”yes”]

 

Win Totals Odds Movement – NFL 2021

A look at the current win totals compared to where they opened. Most movement after the NFL Draft is as the offseason progresses.

TeamCurrent Win TotalOpening Win Total
Kansas City Chiefs12.512
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1211.5
Buffalo Bills1110.5
Baltimore Ravens1111
San Francisco 49ers10.510.5
Cleveland Browns10.59.5
Los Angeles Rams10.510.5
Green Bay Packers1010.5
Seattle Seahawks109.5
Los Angeles Chargers9.59
Miami Dolphins9.59
New England Patriots9.59
Indianapolis Colts910
Tennessee Titans99.5
Dallas Cowboys99.5
New Orleans Saints99
Minnesota Vikings8.58.5
Denver Broncos8.57.5
Pittsburgh Steelers8.58.5
Arizona Cardinals8.58
Washington Football Team8.58
Carolina Panthers7.57.5
Chicago Bears7.57
Atlanta Falcons7.57
Las Vegas Raiders77.5
New York Giants77
Cincinnati Bengals6.56.5
Philadelphia Eagles6.56.5
Jacksonville Jaguars6.56.5
New York Jets66.5
Detroit Lions4.55
Houston Texans44.5

As the win total numbers change, we will update the movement throughout the NFL offseason. For more NFL betting content, check out the NFL Draft odds page.

 

Odds Movement – NFL Total Wins

Here is a look at the win totals movement throughout the year, with updates each month.

TeamAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember
Arizona Cardinals8
(-110|-110)		8
(-134|+110)		8
(-134|+110)		8.5
(-120|+100)		8.5
(-120|+100)		8.5
(-120|+100)
Atlanta Falcons7
(-143|+118)		7.5
(-155|+127)		7.5
(-110|-110)		7.5
(-130|+110)		7.5
(-130|+110)		7.5
(-110|-110)
Baltimore Ravens11
(-125|+103)		10.5
(-155|+127)		10.5
(-155|+127)		11
(-120|+100)		11
(-120|+100)		11
(-120|+100)
Buffalo Bills10.5
(-110|-110)		11
(-106|-122)		11
(-110|-110)		11
(-110|-110)		11
(-110|-110)		11
(-130|+110)
Carolina Panthers7.5
(-110|-110)		7.5
(+110|-134)		7.5
(+110|-134)		7.5
(-115|-105)		7.5
(-115|-105)		7.5
(-120|+100)
Chicago Bears7
(-121|+100)		7.5
(+103|-125)		7.5
(+103|-125)		7.5
(-120|+100)		7.5
(-120|+100)		7.5
(-125|+105)
Cincinnati Bengals6.5
(-110|-110)		6.5
(+118|-143)		6.5
(+115|-139)		6.5
(-130|+110)		6.5
(-130|+110)		6.5
(-115|-105)
Cleveland Browns9.5
(-150|+123)		10.5
(+100|-121)		10.5
(+100|-121)		10.5
(-120|+110)		10.5
(-120|+110)		10.5
(-110|-110)
Dallas Cowboys9.5
(+110|-134)		9.5
(+107|-130)		9.5
(+107|-130)		9
(-140|+115)		9
(-140|+115)		9
(-120|+100)
Denver Broncos7.5
(-110|-110)		8.5
(-134|+110)		8.5
(-134|+110)		8.5
(-130|+110)		8.5
(-130|+110)		8.5
(-150|+120)
Detroit Lions5
(-110|-110)		5
(-110|-110)		5
(+100|-121)		4.5
(-140|+120)		4.5
(-140|+120)		4.5
(-140|+115)
Green Bay Packers10.5
(-143|+118)		10.5
(-143|+118)		10.5
(-143|+118)		10
(-140|+115)		10
(-140|+115)		10
(-165|+135)
Houston Texans4.5
(-125|+103)		4.5
(+118|-143)		4.5
(+130|-159)		4
(-115|-105)		4
(-115|-105)		4
(-110|-110)
Indianapolis Colts10
(+110|-134)		10
(+115|-139)		10
(+115|-139)		9.5
(-150|+120)		9
(-125|+105)		9
(-120|+100)
Jacksonville Jaguars6.5
(-110|-110)		6.5
(+110|-134)		6.5
(+118|-143)		6.5
(-110|-110)		6.5
(-110|-110)		6.5
(-150|+120)
Kansas City Chiefs12
(-110|-110)		12.5
(+123|-150)		12.5
(+123|-150)		12.5
(-125|+105)		12.5
(-125|+105)		12.5
(-130|+110)
Las Vegas Raiders7.5
(-110|-110)		7
(-115|-106)		7
(-115|-106)		7
(-110|-110)		7
(-110|-110)		7
(-120|+100)
Los Angeles Chargers9
(+103|-125)		9
(-110|-110)		9
(-110|-110)		9.5
(-135|+115)		9.5
(-135|+115)		9.5
(-110|-110)
Los Angeles Rams10.5
(+123|-150)		10.5
(+105|-129)		10.5
(+115|-139)		10.5
(-125|+105)		10.5
(-125|+105)		10.5
(-130|+110)
Miami Dolphins9
(-121|+100)		9
(-150|+123)		9
(-150|+123)		9.5
(-125|+105)		9.5
(-125|+105)		9.5
(-150|+125)
Minnesota Vikings8.5
(+123|-150)		9
(+125|+103)		9
(+110|-134)		9
(-115|-105)		9
(-115|-105)		8.5
(-140|+120)
New England Patriots9
(-143|+118)		9
(-130|+107)		9
(-134|+110)		9.5
(-130|+110)		9.5
(-130|+110)		9.5
(-125|+105)
New Orleans Saints9
(-110|-110)		9
(+103|-125)		9
(-105|-117)		9
(-115|-105)		9
(-115|-105)		9
(-120|+100)
New York Giants7
(-110|-110)		7
(-130|+107)		7
(-143|+118)		7
(-130|+110)		7
(-130|+110)		7
(-130|+110)
New York Jets7
(+123|-150)		6.5
(+122|-150)		6.5
(+112|-136)		6
(-120|+100)		6
(-120|+100)		6
(-130|+110)
Philadelphia Eagles6.5
(-150|+123)		6.5
(-155|+127)		6.5
(-150|+123)		6.5
(-130|+110)		6.5
(-130|+110)		6.5
(-140|+115)
Pittsburgh Steelers8.5
(-125|+103)		8.5
(-110|-110)		8.5
(-107|-114)		8.5
(-135|+115)		8.5
(-135|+115)		8.5
(-135|+115)
San Francisco 49ers10.5
(+123|-150)		10.5
(+107|-130)		10.5
(+107|-130)		10.5
(-125|+105)		10.5
(-125|+105)		10.5
(-115|-105)
Seattle Seahawks9.5
(-110|-110)		9.5
(-134|+110)		9.5
(-139|+115)		10
(-120|+100)		10
(-120|+100)		10
(-110|-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers11.5
(-110|-110)		11.5
(-125|+103)		11.5
(-125|+103)		12
(-110|-110)		12
(-110|-110)		12
(-110|-110)
Tennesee Titans9.5
(+123|-150)		9
(-110|-110)		9.5
(-110|-110)		9
(-140|+115)		9
(-140|+115)		9
(-160|+135)
Washington Football Team8
(-110|-110)		8
(-141|+116)		8
(-141|+116)		8.5
(-115|-105)		8.5
(-115|-105)		8.5
(-120|+100)

 

Heavy money on the Titans win total at DraftKings Sportsbook

Ever wonder just why the juice is so high on some markets? The Titans win total was set at nine wins, but has not moved despite heavy money on the over. As you can see below, with 99% of the money on Tennessee over nine wins, that explains why the price is currently -165 on DraftKings. Is a move in the total coming soon?

 

Opening DraftKings NFL Over-Under Wins

DraftKings Sportsbook released the win totals for the 2021 season, here’s a look at the opening totals and prices along with the current price.

TeamCurrent Win TotalOpening Win Total
Kansas City Chiefs12.512
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1211.5
Buffalo Bills1110.5
Baltimore Ravens1111
San Francisco 49ers10.510.5
Cleveland Browns10.59.5
Los Angeles Rams10.510.5
Green Bay Packers1010.5
Seattle Seahawks109.5
Los Angeles Chargers9.59
Miami Dolphins9.59
New England Patriots9.59
Indianapolis Colts910
Tennessee Titans99.5
Dallas Cowboys99.5
New Orleans Saints99
Minnesota Vikings8.58.5
Denver Broncos8.57.5
Pittsburgh Steelers8.58.5
Arizona Cardinals8.58
Washington Football Team8.58
Carolina Panthers7.57.5
Chicago Bears7.57
Atlanta Falcons7.57
Las Vegas Raiders77.5
New York Giants77
Cincinnati Bengals6.56.5
Philadelphia Eagles6.56.5
Jacksonville Jaguars6.56.5
New York Jets66.5
Detroit Lions4.55
Houston Texans44.5

To no one’s surprise, the teams that opened with the highest win totals are:

  • Chiefs (12)
  • Bucs (11.5)
  • Ravens (11)
  • 49ers, Bills, Packers, Rams (10.5)

As you can see, there are quite a few teams projected for some very poor seasons as well. DraftKings has the Texans’ total at 4.5 wins, with the Lions at five wins right behind them. Four teams have a 6.5-win total number including the Eagles, who had a number closer to double-digits this time last season.

 

Win Totals Posted at BetMGM Sportsbook

The win totals have rolled in from various legal sportsbooks, and BetMGM posted theirs just weeks before the NFL Draft was set to begin. Here’s a look at the opening win totals for all 32 teams at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Team Win Totals at BetMGM
Chiefs 12
Buccaneers 11.5
Ravens 11
Packers 11
Bills 10.5
Browns 10
Rams 10
49ers 10
Seahawks 10
Colts 9.5
Patriots 9.5
Saints 9.5
Cowboys 9
Chargers 9
Dolphins 9
Vikings 9
Titans 9
Steelers 8.5
Washington 8.5
Cardinals 8
Falcons 7.5
Panthers 7.5
Broncos 7.5
Raiders 7.5
Bears 7
Giants 7
Eagles 7
Bengals 6.5
Jaguars 6.5
Jets 6
Lions 5.5
Texans 4.5

 

Colts win total falls to 9 after Carson Wentz injury

After Carson Wentz was announced to be out at least 5-12 weeks with a foot injury, the Colts win total fell again to 9, which puts them at a projected 9-8 in the new format with a 17-game schedule. The Colts total has now fallen a full game since totals opened, and that is likely due to a rookie quarterback in Jacob Eason starting the season as QB1. In addition, the Colts lost their best player in Quenton Nelson to the same injury.

 

Vikings Win Total Jumps to 9

The Vikings initial win total was set at 8.5 wins on the season, but some heavy money coming in on the over has led the legal sportsbooks to raise the Vikings’ total to 9 wins. With a 17-game schedule, that would still only put Minnesota at 9-8, which they stand to improve on with any improvement on the offensive line or defensive side of the football.

In addition, Vikings announced home games will have a full capacity, which helps them in Minneapolis.

 

Broncos Win Total Jumps amidst Aaron Rodgers Rumors

The story of the NFL offseason so far has been a simple question. Where will Aaron Rodgers play in 2021? You can bet on this at DraftKings Sportsbook, but in more ways than you may think.

After the recent rumors popped up about Aaron Rodgers wanting out of Green Bay and the Broncos being a landing spot, Denver’s Super Bowl odds rose and the Packers fell. But, so did the Broncos win total. The Broncos’ win total moved from 7.5 to 9, which is a massive shift in a futures market. If Rodgers does get moved, there is value in the Packers under as the market has not adjusted in case Rodgers stays. After the schedule release, the Broncos’ total went back to 8.5, but the juice is heavy on the over.

 

DraftKings NFL Win Totals Released, Chiefs and Bucs Lead

With the 2021-2022 NFL win totals released, it is to no one’s surprise that the only two teams projected to win more than 11 games are the Bucs and the Chiefs, who faced off in last year’s Super Bowl. The Bucs have re-signed nearly everyone going into the offseason, and the Chiefs have restructured their offensive line and will enter the NFL Draft with assets to improve their team as a whole. It helps by having two of the best quarterbacks we have seen play the game in Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, too.