NBA Consensus Picks & Public Betting Trends Percentages
NBA Consensus Picks April 20,2021
DraftKings Sportsbook NBA Public Bets
Using NBA Consensus Data to Place Your Bets
There are a few ways to look at NBA consensus betting data, but one is simple. On a single night of wagering, the sportsbooks may lose. But over time, the sportsbooks have and will continue to win. Betting against the public in theory should help you side with the books. Now, that would mean wagering on every betting market.
Another way to use the NBA consensus information is to see how the lines could potentially move if they haven’t already. For example, if an overwhelming number of bettors wager on one side, the odds will likely shift in order to get closer to 50/50 on either side. For example, if the Lakers (-3) have 90% of the bets and the line moves to -4, you would have known that beforehand while using the data.
For “big” games, or nationally televised games featuring some of the more prestigious teams in the NBA, the public betting information is likely considered the general betting public. When it comes to games between teams such as the Pistons and Kings, the betting public is more likely to be considered “sharps”. You can use this betting data to determine the type of money on a game, especially if the information comes closer to the game’s tip.
Should I Bet With or Against the Public?
As aforementioned, sportsbooks have and will continue to win against the betting public long term, across all betting markets. But with a specific game, it is far trickier to consider whether to wager with (or against) the public.
You have likely heard the term “Fade the public” before, which means siding with the sportsbooks. With that said, this would only “work” if you wagered on every single event across all sports. Even then, it would depend on the total action the book has taken. Legal sportsbooks know that with this betting information out there, some will fade the public and the lines will be adjusted with that in mind.
Betting with or against the public matters more with the type of bet and game it is. For example, if there is a Thursday evening in the NBA with a nationally-televised Lakers and Nets game, that will have a ton of action on it. Maybe the Lakers -4 have 80% of the action on it, compared to the Nets +4. This is more than likely a time to bet against the public, as that number likely includes more recreational than professional bettors. If there is a day with 11 NBA games and the Kings and Hornets have a 90% swing, that could mean sharps are loading up on that game as they may see an edge. That could be a time to wager with the public. Like with many strategies in betting, it all depends.
Betting with the Public NBA Consensus
After taking a look at the public betting consensus information, it’s time to place your bet. What happens next?
You have to decide based on these factors whether you believe the public is right or wrong entering this particular game or betting market. Do you really believe there is an edge betting against the public? Does it feel like a trap? Use these numbers to your advantage to give you an extra edge, not just your thoughts on the particular wager.
Use the consensus to help make decisions, as a “second step” after selecting which wager you would like to place.
About NBA Consensus Picks
Betting on the NBA is not easy. We are not saying that other sports are less complicated, but the daily grind of the NBA season is very tough on sports bettors. NBA consensus picks and public bets info is a must-have tool for any true NBA betting fan who is looking to win or cover the spread each night. ActionRush.com provides NBA public betting trends on the games each night courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. We would also recommend checking tonight’s NBA starting lineups before placing any wagers.
What exactly is a consensus pick? An example would be viewing the basketball betting public picks above and seeing the Lakers -4.5 over the Celtics getting 74% of the action at DraftKings. The public is heavily backing the Lakers, while only 26% percent of bettors are backing the underdog Celtics at +4.5. A simple basketball handicapping strategy would be to “fade the public” and bet the Celtics plus the points.
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