2024 US Election Odds: Donald Trump is the betting favorite for President
The 2024 election is still a two years away, but political betting markets are live across the world. US politics is one of the most popular markets globally, and the 2024 election will be one of the most interesting to follow for many reasons. Joe Biden is the current POTUS, but is an older candidate in 2024. Will Donald Trump win his second term with a four-year gap? Will Kamala Harris be the primary if Biden retires or does not run for a second term? Many storylines for the 2024 election make it an awesome market to follow.
There are many questions to be answered leading up to the 2024 race, including who will have control over the house and senate, who is favored in terms of odds to win, and more. Will Donald Trump win? Will Kamala Harris take over for Joe Biden? Can Ron DeSantis win the 2024 Election?
Let’s take a look at the current betting odds, betting history, primaries, and other political betting props offered at various sportsbooks around the world.
Election Odds Timeline
Below, we take a look at how the odds have changed throughout the 2024 Presidential Election Odds market.
- January 2022 – Pete Buttigieg odds continue to rise, set at +1600. Biden’s odds fall to +450, Trump rises to +300.
- Christmas 2021 – DeSantis odds rise to +800 with Trump rising to +333.
- December 2021 – Long shot candidates appeared on the odds list, with Will Smith and Blake Masters at +15000.
- Thanksgiving 2021 – Donald Trump has become the betting favorite to win the 2024 Election at +333.
- November 2021 – After Election Day for state/local governments, odds remained unchanged for the 2024 election.
- Mid-October, 2021 – Mike Pence’s odds rose from +2000 to +1400.
- October, 2021 – Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s 2024 odds are still locked at +350, but Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis’ odds fell in fall 2021.
- September 29th, 2021 – Donald Trump’s betting odds have risen to +350, as the co-favorite with Joe Biden to win the 2024 election.
- September, 2021 – After the removal of troops from Afghanistan, Joe Biden’s odds fell to +350, Kamala Harris odds rose and Donald Trump rose.
- Late August, 2021 – It was an eventful August, but finished off with Joe Biden’s 2024 odds rising to +300, and Trumps rising to +550.
- Mid August, 2021 – Odds have not shifted, but after Cuomo news we can expect movement in the fall of 202’1.
- Early August, 2021 – Long shots include Josh Hawley, Candace Owens, Mike Pompeo, and Andrew Cuomo at 50/1.
Early 2024 Election Odds Timeline
- Late July, 2021 – Odds shift and Joe Biden rises to +333, Elizabeth Warren rises to +3300 from +5000.
- July, 2021 – Biden and Harris are +375, and Trump is +700 to win the 2024 Presidential Election, with DeSantis’ odds settling at +1000.
- May, 2021 – DeSantis odds climb, Trump, Biden, Harris stay flat.
- April 13th, 2021 – Ron DeSantis odds rise again to +1483.
- March 1st, 2021 – Trump election odds rose to +683, but DeSantis’ odds start to fall to +2567.
- February 17th, 2021 – Biden and Harris odds tie at +388 while, Trump’s Presidential Election odds jumped down to +900.
- January 14th, 2021 – Joe Biden odds at +400, while Trump’s rose to +1567
- January 7th, 2021 – Trump election odds settled at +867.
- December 4th, 2021 – Donald Trump Presidential Election Odds rose to +867, Biden/Harris/Haley/Trump. allwith similar odds.
- November 6th, 2020 – Trump 2024 odds opened at +2500, with Kamala Harris as favorite.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
Below, let’s take a look at the latest 2024 Election odds, based on odds from William Hill/Caesars. Here is a look at the updates starting in 2020 and continuing throughout the entire cycle. Without further ado, a look at the latest odds.
|Presidential Candidate||Odds to Win 2024 Election|
2024 Republican Nominee Odds
Here is a look at the latest Republican Nomination odds, courtesy of William Hill/Caesars.
|Potential Republican Candidate||Odds to win Nomination|
2024 Presidential Election News
Below, take a look at the latest news in chronological order for the 2024 Election odds, including movement, new candidates, and more.
In the New Year 2022, Pete Buttigieg and Donald Trump Election Odds Rise
For early 2022, the top candidates to win the 2024 election remained the same with Donald Trump rising to +300 and Joe Biden at +450, but the big movement came from Pete Buttigieg. His odds rose to +1600, which is now sixth and third among Democrats. Will he be a prime candidate for the election? Time will tell for the current Secretary of Transportation.
Thank you for these replies. It's clear Americans are ready for improved transportation in their communities. Now that we have the resources, I'm confident @USDOT will meet this moment.
— Secretary Pete Buttigieg (@SecretaryPete) January 4, 2022
Ron DeSantis Odds Rise at end of 2021
As of late-December 2021, the odds shifted with Donald Trump going from +333 to +350 and Ron DeSantis going from +1100 to +900 then to +800. That wasn’t the only movement, as Mike Pence fell from +1400 to +2000 and Michelle Obama moved from +5000 to +4000 then back to +5000. As the new year approached, many expected more odds movement ahead.
In the Republican Nomination market, Trump rose to -105 in late 2021 as he is the overwhelming favorite to get the nomination.
Trump Becomes POTUS Betting Favorite on Thanksgiving 2021
On Thanksgiving 2021, the odds shifted slightly, but meaningfully. Here is a look at the 2024 election odds, which has Donald Trump as the sole favorite to win.
- Donald Trump +333
- Joe Biden +400
- Kamala Harris +400
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues and there are more and more bits of news about vaccination restrictions, Trump’s odds changed to make him the favorite. In addition with more Republican seats in congress, that has aided Trump’s odds as well.
Election Odds Update – Donald Trump becomes betting co-favorite in fall 2021
Watching the 2024 election odds movement this early in the process has been very interesting, given the changes in the global landscape of 2021 with Afghanistan, COVID-19, etc. In summary, fall 2021 resulted in Donald Trump’s 2024 election odds rising to +350 as the co-favorite with Joe Biden.
Expect the next few years leading up to the election to show widespread movement for all candidates, especially those near the top. News like this certainly will hurt those currently in power.
US government will run out of money by October 18, Treasury secretary says https://t.co/p41AQq8sya
— CNN (@CNN) September 28, 2021
AOC Presidential Election Odds set at 40/1 after “Tax the Rich” Dress
In September of 2021, AOC attended the Met Gala with a dress that went viral. It read “Tax the Rich” and was quite the statement. Her odds to win the Presidential Election in 2024 are +4000, and have shifted in some places. Here is a look at the dress, which is a big part of her policy that she has not been timid about.
— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) September 13, 2021
Troops removed from Afghanistan, Presidential Election Odds shift
After the much-discussed topic of the removal of the troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban resurgence, and more…the odds shifted. Here is a look at the 2024 Election odds in the fall of 2021, after the Taliban situation.
- Joe Biden to +350 from +300.
- Kamala Harris to +350 from +450.
- Donald Trump to +500 from +550.
- Nikki Haley to +1600 from +1000.
Joe Biden 2024 Election Odds Rise after COVID19 Delta Variant Threat
As the COVID19 delta variant threatened the US in summer of 2021, the odds to win the Presidency in 2024 shifted. Here was a look at the odds movement from early 2021 to summer 2021, as the landscape changed.
|Presidential Candidate||William Hill Odds – Early 2021||William Hill Odds – Summer 2021||Change|
|Ron DeSantis (R)||+1600||+1000||+600|
|Donald Trump (R)||+900||+650||+250|
|Joe Biden (D)||+400||+333||+67|
|Kamala Harris (D)||+350||+450||-100|
|Ted Cruz (R)||+3300||+4000||-700|
|Mike Pence (R)||+1600||+2500||-900|
|Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)||+2500||+4000||-1500|
|Michelle Obama (D)||+3300||+5000||-1700|
As you can see, the candidates with the most movement are both republican party candidates in Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump. DeSantis rose quickly in early 2021, but even since then his odds have risen to +1000. Second is Donald Trump, jumping from +900 to +650 in July of 2021. Current President Biden’s odds rose as well from +400 to +333, and the favorite in late July 2021.
Three candidates who saw a massive dropoff are AOC, Ivanka Trump, and Michelle Obama. Each of their odds fell -1500 or more. Kamala Harris’ odds fell, but barely to +450 and she is still the candidate with the best odds after Joe Biden.
Presidential Election Odds Movement
One key asset of any odds market is following the movement. There has been and will continue to be odds movement leading up to the 2024 Election, as election odds are quite volatile. Let’s take a look at the movement so far from for the 2024 Presidential Election odds market.
Donald Trump Election Odds Movement
- Opened at +2500
- Rose to +1500
- Odds shifted to +700
- As high as +650 in summer 2021
- Shifted to +550 in fall of 2021
- Odds settled at +350 in late 2021 after a stint at +333
- In 2022, odds rose to +300
Joe Biden Presidential Election Odds Movement
- Opened at +675
- Highest of +850
- Rose to +331 to win 2024 Election in summer 2021
- Odds rose to +300 in fall 2021
- Co-favored with Donald Trump at +250 in November 2021
- Fell to +400 in late 2021
- Odds fell again to +450 in early 2022
Kamala Harris Election Odds
- Opened as favorite at +425
- Highest of +463
- Lowest of +375
- Odds set at +450 in November 2021
- Odds rose to +400 in late 2021
- Harris odds fell to +700 in early 2022
Nikki Haley Election Odds
- Opened at +800
- Moved to +1000 in early 2021
- Settled at +1200 throughout 2021
- Fell to +1800 in November 2021
- Odds rose to +1600 in early 2022
Ron DeSantis Election Odds
- Opened at +2500
- Rose to +1600
- Odds shifted to +1000 as of July 2021
- Settled at +1100 in fall 2021
- Rose from +1100 to +900 in late 2021
- Settled at +700 in early 2022
Elizabeth Warren Election Odds
- Opened off the board
- Re-opened at +5000
- Rose to +3300 in late July 2021
Michelle Obama Election Odds
- Odds opened at 50/1
- Remained at 50/1 in fall 2021
- Odds rose to +4000 in December 2021
- In early 2022, Michelle Obama’s odds rose to +5000
Tim Scott Election Odds
- Opened at +6600
- Remained at 66/1 in November 2021
Summer 2021 Update – Ron DeSantis Election Odds Climb
There is some real momentum behind Florida governor Ron DeSantis to be the next President of the United States, as his odds climbed to +1100, then up to +1000 in the summer of 2021. How DeSantis treated COVID-19 resonates well with a lot of voters, and his odds rose right after Hurricane/Tropical Storm Elsa as well. Could the Florida governor make a run a the 2024 Presidency? Time will tell.
I have expanded the State of Emergency for #Elsa to include Baker, Bradford, Clay, Duval, Nassau, Putnam and Union counties. Elsa will produce wind and rain that can lead to flooding and power outages. Follow @FLSERT for updates. https://t.co/lMTJoPRKs8 pic.twitter.com/NjTf0P3QKi
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) July 6, 2021
2022 Midterms Odds – Who will control the Senate?
With the midterms elections just around the corner in 2022, the odds for political betting markets are already moving. This is a crucial election for both parties, and will certainly be one that bettors and Americans will be following. Here is a look at some of the odds movement from 2021.
|Date||Democratic Price to win Midterms||Republican Price to win Midterms|
For more information on the midterm elections and odds surrounding it, check our full breakdown here.
Ron DeSantis 2024 Presidential Election Odds
Could Governor DeSantis be a candidate to run for the Presidency in 2024? The Florida governor certainly saw some traction in 2021 during the coronavirus pandemic.
Starting today, all Floridians who qualify under the FDA are eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. This includes 18+ for Moderna and J&J, and 16+ for Pfizer. Join the 6 million Floridians who have already been vaccinated and pre-register at https://t.co/Q6KhVWwoaX.
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) April 5, 2021
DeSantis’ odds have risen all the way to +900 to be the next President of the United States. Keep an eye on the Florida governor, as his brand and influence will continue to grow.
Donald Trump’s 2024 Election Odds Increase After Impeachment Hearing
After Donald Trump was acquitted in his second impeachment trial, his odds to win the 2024 election increased from +1000 to +800. Of course, if he was found guilty he would have been ineligible to run in the 2024 election, but this leaves the door open for a possible return to the White House. Trump is third behind current Vice President Harris (+333) and President Biden (+400) to win the 2024 election.
Potential Celebrity Candidates Added to 2024 Election Odds
One thing Donald Trump did when he won the 2016 Election is potentially open the door to other “celebrities” to run for, or potentially run for POTUS. While the 2024 election is nearly four years out, the odds have already been released for many potential candidates in overseas markets. We’ve seen Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Kanye West, and Mark Cuban show up in odds lists over the last few months, but new potential candidates have come to the forefront and been added to the odds table as well. Here’s a look at some “celebrity” candidates that are listed on the 2024 election odds board.
|Person||Opening Odds to win 2024 Election|
|Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson||+2800|
Kamala Harris opens at +350 favorite to win 2024 Election
Odds for the 2024 Presidential Election have already been posted.
Kamala Harris (+350)
Joe Biden (+450)
Donald Trump (+800)https://t.co/0T0Vivs8ZO
— Action Rush (@ActionRushBets) November 10, 2020
Vice President-elect Kamala Harris leads the way in terms of odds to win the 2024 election as the market opened. Of course this is a market that is a long way away, but as of now the Vice President-elect leads the way over the President-elect Joe Biden and current President Donald Trump.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ODDS 2024 FAQ
Is it legal bet on the Presidential Election in the United States?
Currently, the answer to this question is no, you can't legally bet on any election in the United States. The state of West Virginia did try to add political betting props as an option earlier in 2020 but it was quickly removed.
What are Donald Trump's election odds?
The odds for President Trump to be elected President in 2024 are +300.
What are political prop bets or betting odds?
An example of a political prop bet or election betting odds would be the following:
“Who will win the 2024 United States Presidential Election?”
Donald Trump +300
Joe Biden +450
A minus symbol indicates that a candidate is the favorite to win the 2024 election. A plus symbol indicates longer odds for better return. If you risk $100, you will win $333 on Trump at +333. If you bet $100 on Joe Biden at +400 odds, you would win $400, plus your original wager of $100.
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