2024 US Election Odds: Is Donald Trump the favorite for President in 2024?


Taking a look ahead to 2024, the Presidential Election will be one of the most interesting ones to date for a multitude of reasons. The most recent election in 2020 was an eventful one during the COVID-19 pandemic, but with an older President in office in Joe Biden and the Vice President as a favorite to win in 2024, this cycle looks to be a crazy one from a betting perspective. There are many questions to be answered leading up to the 2024 race, including who will have control over the house and senate, who is favored in terms of odds to win, and more.

In the 2020 election, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s odds moving, the market was all over the place. That sports betting market set the precedence for what promises to be another popular election from a betting perspective again in 2024. Will Donald Trump run again? Will Kamala Harris take over for Joe Biden? Can Ron DeSantis win the 2024 Election?

Let’s take a look at the current betting odds, betting history, primaries, and other political betting props offered at various sportsbooks around the world.

 

 

Election Odds Timeline

A look at how the odds have changed throughout the 2024 Presidential Election Odds market.

  • Mid-October, 2021 – Mike Pence’s odds rose from +2000 to +1400.
  • October, 2021 – Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s 2024 odds are still locked at +350, but Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis’ odds fell in fall 2021.
  • September 29th, 2021 – Donald Trump’s betting odds have risen to +350, as the co-favorite with Joe Biden to win the 2024 election.
  • September, 2021 – After the removal of troops from Afghanistan, Joe Biden’s odds fell to +350, Kamala Harris odds rose and Donald Trump rose.
  • Late August, 2021 – It was an eventful August, but finished off with Joe Biden’s 2024 odds rising to +300, and Trumps rising to +550.
  • Mid August, 2021 – Odds have not shifted, but after Cuomo news we can expect movement in the fall of 202’1.
  • Early August, 2021 – Long shots include Josh Hawley, Candace Owens, Mike Pompeo, and Andrew Cuomo at 50/1.
  • Late July, 2021 – Odds shift and Joe Biden rises to +333, Elizabeth Warren rises to +3300 from +5000.
  • July, 2021 – Biden and Harris are +375, and Trump is +700 to win the 2024 Presidential Election, with DeSantis’ odds settling at +1000.
  • May, 2021 – DeSantis odds climb, Trump, Biden, Harris stay flat.
  • April 13th, 2021 – Ron DeSantis odds rise again to +1483.
  • March 1st, 2021 – Trump election odds rose to +683, but DeSantis’ odds start to fall to +2567.
  • February 17th, 2021 – Biden and Harris odds tie at +388 while, Trump’s Presidential Election odds jumped down to +900.
  • January 14th, 2021 – Joe Biden odds at +400, while Trump’s rose to +1567
  • January 7th, 2021 – Trump election odds settled at +867.
  • December 4th, 2021 – Donald Trump Presidential Election Odds rose to +867, Biden/Harris/Haley/Trump. allwith similar odds.
  • November 6th, 2020 – Trump 2024 odds opened at +2500, with Kamala Harris as favorite.

 

2024 Presidential Election Odds

A look at the latest 2024 Election odds, based on odds from overseas. Here is a look at the updates from 2020 to 2021, continuing throughout the entire cycle. In early 2021, the odds remained relatively unchanged other than Mike Pence moving from +1000 to +800 for the 2024 election. After Joe Biden was sworn in, Kamala Harris’ odds moved from +350 to +333, then back to +350. Throughout 2021, there was significant odds movement including Pence up as high as +2000. Here are the latest odds.

Presidential CandidateWilliam Hill Odds
Joe Biden (D)+350
Donald Trump (R)+350
Kamala Harris (D)+450
Ron DeSantis (R)+1100
Mike Pence (R)+1400
Nikki Haley (R)+1800
Tucker Carlson+2800
Dwayne Johnson+3300
Pete Buttgieg (D)+3300
Elizabeth Warren+3300
Ted Cruz (R)+4000
Beto O'Rourke+4000
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)+4000
Michelle Obama (D)+5000
Mike Pompeo+5000
Ivanka Trump+5000
Tom Cotton+5000
Andrew Cuomo+5000
Marco Rubio+5000
Candace Owens+5000
Josh Hawley+5000
Amy Klobuchar+5000
Bernie Sanders+6600
Tim Scott+6600
Andrew Yang+6600
Michael Bloomberg+6600

 

Election Odds Update – Donald Trump becomes betting favorite in fall 2021

Watching the 2024 election odds movement this early in the process has been very interesting, given the changes in the global landscape of 2021 with Afghanistan, COVID-19, etc. In summary, fall 2021 resulted in Donald Trump’s 2024 election odds rising to +350 as the co-favorite with Joe Biden.

Expect the next few years leading up to the election to show widespread movement for all candidates, especially those near the top. News like this certainly will hurt those currently in power.

 

AOC Presidential Election Odds set at 40/1 after “Tax the Rich” Dress

In September of 2021, AOC attended the Met Gala with a dress that went viral. It read “Tax the Rich” and was quite the statement. Her odds to win the Presidential Election in 2024 are +4000, and have shifted in some places. Here is a look at the dress, which is a big part of her policy that she has not been timid about.

 

Troops removed from Afghanistan, Presidential Election Odds shift

After the much-discussed topic of the removal of the troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban resurgence, and more…the odds shifted. Here is a look at the 2024 Election odds in the fall of 2021, after the Taliban situation.

  • Joe Biden to +350 from +300.
  • Kamala Harris to +350 from +450.
  • Donald Trump to +500 from +550.
  • Nikki Haley to +1600 from +1000.

 

Joe Biden 2024 Election Odds Rise after odds shift

As the COVID19 delta variant threatened the US in summer of 2021, the odds to win the Presidency in 2024 shifted. Here is a look at the odds movement from early 2021 to summer 2021, as the landscape changed.

Presidential Candidate William Hill Odds – Early 2021 William Hill Odds – Summer 2021 Change
Ron DeSantis (R) +1600 +1000 +600
Donald Trump (R) +900 +650 +250
Joe Biden (D) +400 +333 +67
Kamala Harris (D) +350 +450 -100
Tucker Carlson +2500 +2800 -300
Ted Cruz (R) +3300 +4000 -700
Beto O’Rourke +3300 +4000 -700
Mike Pence (R) +1600 +2500 -900
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) +2500 +4000 -1500
Ivanka Trump +3300 +5000 -1700
Michelle Obama (D) +3300 +5000 -1700

As you can see, the candidates with the most movement are both republican party candidates in Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump. DeSantis rose quickly in early 2021, but even since then his odds have risen to +1000. Second is Donald Trump, jumping from +900 to +650 in July of 2021. Current President Biden’s odds rose as well from +400 to +333, and the favorite in late July 2021.

Three candidates who saw a massive dropoff are AOC, Ivanka Trump, and Michelle Obama. Each of their odds fell -1500 or more. Kamala Harris’ odds fell, but barely to +450 and she is still the candidate with the best odds after Joe Biden.

 

Presidential Election Odds Movement

One key asset of any odds market is following the movement. There has been and will continue to be odds movement leading up to the 2024 Election, as election odds are quite volatile. Let’s take a look at the movement so far from for the 2024 Presidential Election odds market.

Donald Trump Election Odds Movement

  • Opened at +2500
  • Rose to +1500
  • Odds shifted to +700
  • As high as +650 in summer 2021
  • Shifted to +550 in fall of 2021

Joe Biden Presidential Election Odds Movement

  • Opened at +675
  • Highest of +850
  • Rose to +331 to win 2024 Election in summer 2021
  • Odds rose to +300 in fall 2021

Kamala Harris Election Odds

  • Opened as favorite at +425
  • Highest of +463
  • Lowest of +375

Nikki Haley Election Odds

  • Opened at +800
  • Moved to +1000 in early 2021
  • Settled at +1200 throughout 2021

Ron DeSantis Election Odds

  • Opened at +2500
  • Rose to +1600
  • Odds shifted to +1000 as of July 2021

Elizabeth Warren Election Odds

  • Opened off the board
  • Re-opened at +5000
  • Rose to +3300 in late July 2021

Michelle Obama Election Odds

  • Odds opened at 50/1

Tim Scott Election Odds

  • Opened at +6600

 

 

Summer 2021 Update – Ron DeSantis Election Odds Climb

There is some real momentum behind Florida governor Ron DeSantis to be the next President of the United States, as his odds have climbed to +1100, then up to +1000 in the summer of 2021. How DeSantis treated COVID-19 resonates well with a lot of voters, and his odds rose right after Hurricane/Tropical Storm Elsa as well. Could the Florida governor make a run a the 2024 Presidency? Time will tell.

 

2022 Midterms Odds – Who will control the Senate?

With the midterms elections just around the corner in 2022, the odds for political betting markets are already moving.

This is a crucial election for both parties, and will certainly be one that bettors and Americans will be following. Here is a look at some of the odds movement from early 2021 until mid 2021.

Date Democratic Price to win Midterms Republican Price to win Midterms
February 12 54c 45c
February 19 56c 45c
February 26 56c 47c
March 3 56c 46c
March 10 57c 46c
March 17 54c 47c
March 24 55c 46c
March 31 54c 47c
April 7 54c 46c
April 14 54c 48c
April 21 54c 47c
April 28 54c 48c
May 5 50c 51c
June 1 52c 50c
Current Price 51c 51c

For more information on the midterm elections and odds surrounding it, check our full breakdown here.

 

Ron DeSantis 2024 Presidential Election Odds

Could Governor DeSantis be a candidate to run for the Presidency in 2024? The Florida governor certainly saw some traction in 2021 during the coronavirus pandemic.

DeSantis’ odds have risen all the way to +1400 to be the next President of the United States, as they have risen quickly after Joe Biden was elected. Keep an eye on the Florida governor, as his brand and influence will continue to grow.

 

Donald Trump’s 2024 Election Odds Increase After Impeachment Hearing

After Donald Trump was acquitted in his second impeachment trial, his odds to win the 2024 election increased from +1000 to +800. Of course, if he was found guilty he would have been ineligible to run in the 2024 election, but this leaves the door open for a possible return to the White House. Trump is third behind current Vice President Harris (+333) and President Biden (+400) to win the 2024 election.

 

Potential Celebrity Candidates Added to 2024 Election Odds

One thing Donald Trump did when he won the 2016 Election is potentially open the door to other “celebrities” to run for, or potentially run for POTUS. While the 2024 election is nearly four years out, the odds have already been released for many potential candidates in overseas markets. We’ve seen Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Kanye West, and Mark Cuban show up in odds lists over the last few months, but new potential candidates have come to the forefront and been added to the odds table as well. Here’s a look at some “celebrity” candidates that are listed on the 2024 election odds board.

Person Odds to win 2024 Election
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson +2800
Tucker Carlson +3300
Mark Cuban +5000
Kanye West +10000
Oprah Winfrey +10000
George Clooney +10000
Elon Musk +10000
Bill Maher +15000
Dave Portnoy +25000
Jeff Bezos +25000

 

Kamala Harris opens at +350 favorite to win 2024 Election

Vice President-elect Kamala Harris leads the way in terms of odds to win the 2024 election as the market opened. Of course this is a market that is a long way away, but as of now the Vice President-elect leads the way over the President-elect Joe Biden and current President Donald Trump.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ODDS FAQ

Is it legal bet on the Presidential Election in the United States?

Currently, the answer to this question is no, you can't legally bet on any election in the United States. The state of West Virginia did try to add political betting props as an option earlier in 2020 but it was quickly removed.

What are Donald Trump's election odds?

The odds for President Trump to be elected in 2024 are +350.

What are political prop bets or betting odds?

An example of a political prop bet or election betting odds would be the following:
“Who will win the 2024 United States Presidential Election?”
Donald Trump +700
Joe Biden +375
A minus symbol indicates that a candidate is the favorite to win the 2024 election. A plus symbol indicates longer odds for better return. If you risk $100, you will win $700 on Trump at +700. If you bet $100 on Joe Biden at +375 odds, you would win $375, plus your original wager of $100.