2020 Election Odds: Joe Biden Now Big Betting Favorite over Donald Trump
The 2020 US Presidential Election will be one for the ages, and the betting markets surrounding the election and even the primaries are very, very interesting to follow. Of course, this is after a 2016 election that saw a massive swing in projections, votes, odds, and more leading to Donald Trump being the 45th President of the United States. During the election, books that offered election odds saw Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump’s odds soar, drop, and level out all in a short amount of time. That sports betting market set the precedence for what promises to be another popular election from a betting perspective.
Let’s take a look at the current betting odds, betting history, primaries, and other political betting props offered at various sportsbooks around the world.
Kamala Harris VP Choice Has Immediate Impact On 2020 Election Odds
Rumors were swirling and the odds were dropping, but in the Kamala Harris was the choice for VP on the Biden 2020 ticket. Betting odds on Predict’it immediately ticked up in favor Joe Biden, with almost 60% of the bets now on Biden to win.
Yes, Kamala Harris is the VP choice, but she is now a step closer to the White House and legit candidate herself.
Joe Biden 2020 Election Odds Fall in Early August
|Presidential Candidate||Bet365 Odds||BetWay Odds|
|Joe Biden (D)||-155||-175|
|Donald Trump (R)||+125||+145|
|Hillary Clinton (D)||+5000||+2500|
|Mike Pence (R)||+10000||+5000|
|Michelle Obama (D)||OTB||+5000|
What a wild turn of events in late May and early June. As of June 3rd, Joe Biden has surpassed Donald Trump in terms of the favorite to win the 2020 Election. As of mid-June, Biden’s odds rose again to -118, then to -121. Trump held the lead on the first of June, but quickly lost it as heavy momentum has favored Joe Biden’s odds. Hillary Clinton had some momentum in the early spring but has fallen to +4000 with another former First Lady Michelle Obama, whose odds differ from +5000 to +8000. As of late June, Joe Biden’s odds rose to -160+, with Trump falling to +130 and even +150 in some places. In July, Biden’s odds have risen all the way to -180.
On July 1st, Donald Trump was a heavy underdog at +140 to Joe Biden at -160. In early July, Kanye West made an appearance on the board at +6600, down from +5000 to be the next POTUS. That is a real sentence. After the holiday, the odds have settled at Biden (-150) and Trump (+130). The odds calmed a bit in mid-July, but in early August, there was some heavy movement towards Trump…who is back to +125 and rising.
This will be a wild last few weeks before the election, so be sure to keep tabs on the situation.
US Presidential Election Odds Movement – Donald Trump Odds to +125
On the betting markets, Joe Biden's odds of winning the election have surged to all time highs over the last week pic.twitter.com/xIjy1h8SGm
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) June 2, 2020
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds have surged greatly over the last week of May and into early June and July, as he has seen momentum towards getting back in the race to win the 2020 election. But in early August, Donald Trump’s odds surged. Let’s take a look at the latest odds movements, which have Joe Biden’s chances soaring.
|Candidate||Current Election Odds||August 6||August 2||July 31||July 27||July 25||July 20||July 16||July 10||July 5||July 1||June 25||June 22||June 19||June 17||June 14||June 11||June 7||June 1||May 25||May 20||May 14||May 8||May 3||April 30||April 25||April 17||March 29||March 17||March 10||March 4||March 2||Feb 26|
Odds movement in the President Election betting market is crazy. The chart alone tells the story, but think about it this way. In a few months, Joe Biden went from +1700 and higher and not even a lock to win the Democratic Nominee to the favorite to be President, and back to the runner-up in terms of odds. Currently, Joe Biden sits as the heavy favorite over Donald Trump. Trump’s odds have changed drastically. as well, going from -162 pre-pandemic to +100, back over -120, and is now plus-money with Biden’s odds soaring.
Vice President Mike Pence has seen his share of crazy odds movements as well, as he has gone from +250 to +8000 in a few months, and back up to +6600. We have seen candidates such as Elizabeth Warren, Michael Bloomberg, and Bernie Sanders drop out of the race and out of the odds listing, but we have also seen Bernie Sanders’ odds rise after he dropped out of the race. In addition, we have seen Hillary Clinton’s odds skyrocket to +2500 after being at +5000, but have since gone back to +4000. In addition, former First Lady Michelle Obama saw her odds rise all the way up to +5000 as well, with some recent momentum in late May 2020. She too had her odds settled at +6600, down in June then back to +8000 in some places. Late June was a large field of movement, as Biden is all the way up to -165 and Trump has fallen to +145 or higher. As of early July, Kanye West saw odds movement from opening at +5000 to +6600…then fell off the board in mid-July. In August, President Donald Trump’s odds are coming back, as he stands at +125.
The odds are not done moving, so keep an eye on them going forward, especially in summer 2020.
Current Democratic Nomination Odds: Biden a Lock?
With Donald Trump set to run for a second term, most of the attention in early 2020 has been set on the Democratic Primary race. Let’s take a look at the latest odds:
- Joe Biden -10000
- Hillary Clinton +1700
- Michelle Obama +3300
- Bernie Sanders +6600
- Andrew Cuomo +10000
Then there was one. With news of Tulsi Gabbard dropping from the race, there were just three candidates on many sportsbooks to win the Democratic Nomination. In reality, the only two candidates running were Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, but Sanders’ campaign is now suspended as of early April, leaving only Joe Biden as an official candidate. Let’s look at how the odds have changed.
Super Tuesday changed everything. Joe Biden’s odds rocketed to -455 to win the Democratic Nomination, and Bernie Sanders fell all the way to +450. With Michael Bloomberg dropping out of the race to support Biden, the momentum for the former Vice President was at an all-time high. The odds clearly reflected that, as more movement came after the March 10th primaries, with Bernie Sanders falling to +1400, which was the exact same as Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Nomination. After the pandemic officially hit the US, Biden remained at -2500, but Hillary Clinton took second at +800 with Bernie Sanders falling to +1700 to win the Democratic Nomination. As of late March after the stimulus package was approved, the odds moved yet again. Since Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race in early April, his odds have fallen to +8000, then shot back up in May to +5000, and Biden’s surged to -1250 after flirting in the -2000s.
As of June, it is clearly Joe Biden’s primary to lose, as his latest odds are -10000 to win the Democratic Nomination. The next closest odds are Hillary Clinton at +1700, with former First Lady Michelle Obama at +3300.
As of late June, these are off the board for most books.
Who will Biden’s VP candidate be? Kamala Harris is the Favorite
|Democratic VP Candidate||Odds|
|ODDS FROM WILLIAM HILL|
Above odds are from the first week of August. Odds boards are cleared as of August 10th. Will update as news comes in.
With Joe Biden announcing his running mate will be a woman in the 2020 election, the odds have shifted in this market. Currently, the leader is Kamala Harris at -137, which is up overall from +125 in early June and +180 in May. Val Demings has rocketed up the odds board at +550 as of mid-June, but fell to +2500 in July. Gretchen Whitmer saw her odds come out of nowhere after a tweet in late March to be +500 to be Biden’s running mate, but have since tamed down to +3300 as her hype continues to fall. There are two things we know. One, his running mate will be a woman per his tweet. Two, we will have to wait with the DNC convention delayed until August.
With the clear momentum Kamala Harris has, it seems quite likely she will be the choice. Keep an eye on Val Demings’ movement though, as her odds have risen as high as +500 in June, but down to +700 two weeks later, and has since dropped to +2500 in late July. Former First Lady Michelle Obama is +2500 to be the VP choice for Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton has fallen off the board. Oddly in late-June, Susan Rice’s odds have skyrocketed to +350. Keep an eye on her for the DNC VP pick, along with Tammy Duckworth who has seen a massive uptick in the last few weeks to +600 as of July 13th, then to +550 on July 17th to +600 on July 20th. She did fall to +1200 at the end of the month. At the end of July, Kamala Harris’ odds fell to +110 then rocketed to -200 before settling at -137, and Susan Rice dropped to +350.
In the beginning of August, Kamala Harris carried her -137 odds into the month, but Susan Rice jumped to +333, Karen Bass down to +700 and Mitt Romney popped on the board at +15000. It is still Harris’ race to “lose”. As of August 10th, the boards were clear, which is very interesting.
PredictIt Currently Projects the Democratic Party Will Win the Electoral College
The “stock market for politics” website PredictIt currently has the Democratic Party at 334 electoral votes using its software. PredictIt takes a deep look at each state and looks to stay ahead of the curve in predicting which state will be red, which will be blue, and tally the votes based on its “market”. As of late June:
- Democratic Party – 334 Electoral Votes
- Republican Party – 204 Electoral Votes
- Florida – Democratic (61c)
- Pennsylvania – Democratic (73c)
With this being said, PredictIt also has Biden at 61c, and Trump at 40c to be the winner of the 2020 Election. This is big news, as Trump led in May. It is all Joe Biden’s show in June and into July.
Elizabeth Warren Endorses Joe Biden with Video
Another former Democratic Nomination candidate endorses Joe Biden, as the party looks to have full backing of Biden who is all but set to be the Democratic Nominee. Warren posted nearly a four-minute video explaining why she will be backing former Vice President Biden. Then, as a follow-up she tweeted to be sure to chip in to Joe Biden’s campaign. It seems the party now has fully backed Joe Biden.
Now it’s up to all of us to help make @JoeBiden the next president. Let’s get to work. Go to https://t.co/HrbPj2qctA right now, and chip in your $5, make some calls, send some texts—because we are all in this together.
— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) April 15, 2020
Bernie Sanders Backs Joe Biden
WATCH: Bernie Sanders formally endorsed Joe Biden for president, saying Americans of all affiliations should back the former vice president over Trump (via @quicktake) https://t.co/HLkY1SDgd6 pic.twitter.com/aDYOa7j3ty
— Bloomberg (@business) April 13, 2020
Former Democratic Nomination candidate Bernie Sanders has officially backed Joe Biden, stating that he will be a better president than Donald Trump. It was unclear whether or not Sanders would back Joe Biden, but this is certainly a help for Biden’s prospects given the popularity of the younger demographic of Sanders’ background.
Donald Trump 2020 Election Special Bets
- Win Electoral College, Lose Popular Vote +200 (was +150)
- Lose Electoral College, Lose Popular Vote +110 (was +125)
- Win Electoral College, Win Popular Vote +300 (was +250)
- Lose Electoral College, Win Popular Vote +2500 (was +1400)
Some sportsbooks are offering “special bets” on what will occur for Donald Trump in the 2020 election. The above scenarios are quite interesting for bettors. There are four possible scenarios for a candidate in an election, because of the popular vote and the electoral college. Currently, the favorite for Trump is to lose the Electoral College and lose the popular vote at +110, despite him being a “pick ’em” to win the Presidency. The longshot at +2500 is for Trump to win the popular vote, but lose the Electoral College. What a scenario that would be, but those odds have fallen from +1400.
These books have different prices than some others, which lead to one very obvious assumption. Given the odds of these four scenarios, there is a lot that will change in the coming months.
No Election Betting in the U.S. Costing Operators Billions
It is no secret that one of the most popular betting markets around the world is the US Presidential Election. But in the United States, it is not legal to be wagered on. That is costing US sportsbook operators a ton of money. For example, it has been estimated that over $10M was wagered on the 1916 election, where Woodrow Wilson defeated Charles Evan Hughes. $10M then is equivalent to around $240M today and of course 100 years ago the technology was nowhere close to what it is today for betting.
Vegas oddsmaker John Murray, of SuperBook, says: “The handle would be astronomical. It’s just something that everyone has an opinion on. Everyone thinks they know more about it than the next guy. It’s such a polarizing topic, even more than sports.” Sarbjit Bakhshi, of Smarkets in London, is quoted saying that US sportsbooks are leaving “billions of dollars” on the table by not allowing wagering on political elections. As most anticipate, just because it is not legal and regulated does not mean it still is not happening. Offshore and black market sportsbooks allow for betting on the elections, as well as overseas betting operators. Bakhshi mentions “As long as you exclude popular bets like those betting on the presidential election, people will turn to the offshore market, leaving those bets in the hands of unscrupulous operators.” Overseas in the UK, the regulation of sports betting and gambling was to keep it out of the black market. Political betting is happening everywhere, so why not legalize and regulate it?
In 2013, the Nevada government attempted to allow betting on elections but the legislation was not passed. There has been no attempt to revamp that since then. Other states such as Pennsylvania and New Jersey have laws specific to sports betting, so would not be able to offer bets on the elections either.
2020 Super Tuesday Results
Super Tuesday is the single biggest day for the primary vote in US politics, as nearly one-third of all the delegates are announced and it is a very clear indication of usually who wins the Presidential Nomination. Let’s take a look at the 2020 Super Tuesday results, by state.
|State||Winner of Super Tuesday|
|American Samoa||Michael Bloomberg|
|North Carolina||Joe Biden|
Democratic Nomination Delegate Count – Biden Wins
As of July, the total delegates for remaining Democratic Candidates have closed:
- Joe Biden – 2622
- Bernie Sanders – 1077
- Elizabeth Warren – 53
- Michael Bloomberg – 36
- Pete Buttigieg – 16
- Amy Klobuchar – 5
- Tulsi Gabbard – 2
2020 Presidential Election Primary Calendar and Key Dates
- June 2 – Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Indiana, Maryland, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota primaries
- June 9 – George and West Virginia primaries
- June 20 – Louisiana primaries
- June 23 – Kentucky primaries
- July 7 – New Jersey primaries
- August 17 – Democratic National Convention
- August 24 – Republican National Convention
- November 3 – Election Day
Democratic presidential candidate and former VP Joe Biden said organizers of the Democratic National Convention may need to consider a virtual option if the #coronavirus pandemic continues into the summer. The convention was recently pushed back from July to August. @FOX40 pic.twitter.com/d0OUTk2Aqf
— Bridgette Bjorlo (@bridgettebjorlo) April 6, 2020
Biden Favorite to win Democratic Nomination, Hillary Clinton Odds Rise
Entering Super Tuesday, Joe Biden was the favorite for the Democratic Nomination across many offshore and overseas sports betting operators. After Super Tuesday, his odds skyrocketed. Biden had as high as an 88% chance to win the nomination at BetFair after Super Tuesday, and those odds increased after the March 10th primaries. Since the March 17th primaries, Biden has continued to close the gap, and Hillary Clinton remains ahead of Bernie Sanders. With Bernie Sanders dropping out of the race, the presumptive winner is Joe Biden, but odds include other candidates, despite this.
Here is a look at some information from RealClearPolitics.com, on the markets overseas for the US Democratic Nomination.
|Odds to Win Democratic Nomination||Joe Biden||Hillary Clinton||Michelle Obama|
Can You Bet on the Presidential Elections in the US?
As of April 2020, betting on presidential elections (or elections of any kind for public office) are not permitted. FanDuel Sportsbook posted odds in West Virginia for a brief period, but that was deemed as a mistake given the way the law is written has has not been amended. Do not expect to be able to wager on the 2020 election legally in the US, but if that changes we will update.
West Virginia Lottery Director John Myers acknowledged Wednesday that Governor Jim Justice’s Office had not been informed about the sports betting app FanDuel launching a site for wagering on the 2020 Presidential election and that the decision to do so was a mistake.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) April 8, 2020
Other 2020 Presidential Election News
Michigan Governor Whitmer’s Odds Rise to be Biden’s Running Mate
— Governor Gretchen Whitmer (@GovWhitmer) April 4, 2020
Our of nowhere, Governor Whitmer’s odds boomed to +500 (from +800) to be former Vice President Joe Biden’s running mate. After her vocal stand and response during the coronavirus (above), she became popular in some betting circles to be the next nominee for Vice President. Joe Biden went as far as to say this about Whitmer on his podcast: “Gov. Whitmer is an outstanding governor. She is one of the most talented people in the country in my view. She also is a supporter. She was also a co-chair of my campaign. She’s a good friend, but she has been laser focused, laser focused on delivering for her state.” Look for Whitmer’s odds to continue to climb to be Joe Biden’s running mate.
The Democratic National Committee has postponed its July convention in Milwaukee amidst the coronavirus pandemic. It has been moved to the week of August 17th, which is more than a month after the original July 13th date. CEO of the Democratic National Convention Committee Joe Solmonese explained:
“In our current climate of uncertainty, we believe the smartest approach is to take additional time to monitor how this situation unfolds so we can best position our party for a safe and successful convention. During this critical time, when the scope and scale of the pandemic and its impact remain unknown, we will continue to monitor the situation and follow the advice of health care professionals and emergency responders.”
Keep in mind, Joe Biden mentioned that he believed the convention would have to be postponed on the NBC’s “The Tonight Show”.
DNC is postponing its July convention until the week of August 17 due to coronavirus pandemic, the party announces. https://t.co/eaVV3poANK
— Breaking News (@BreakingNews) April 2, 2020
Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Presidential Election Odds Rise at UK Books
In a recent article from the Washington Examiner, New York Governor Cuomo has seen his odds to win the 2020 Election skyrocket during the coronavirus crisis. According to UK political odds site Oddscheckers, Cuomo is now 25:1 at some books, and is +3300 at popular ones to win the presidency, which is tied or ahead of Bernie Sanders (+3300) and only behind Donald Trump and Joe Biden. A lot would have to happen for Cuomo to even be in the running for President of the United States, but even current President Trump believes he would be a better candidate than Joe Biden. This could have helped spark Cuomo’s odds.
Trump said New York Governor Andrew Cuomo would be a better choice for the Democratic nomination for president than the present front-runner Joe Biden https://t.co/GeMddoKa07 pic.twitter.com/ZqBbOtgDaa
— Bloomberg (@business) March 30, 2020
Trump’s Approval Rating Rises in Latest Poll
New Washington Post poll: Trump job approval 48 percent disapproval 46 percent. Highest approval, lowest disapproval in Trump presidency. Also first time not underwater. https://t.co/ZXTjrV3iv1 pic.twitter.com/YixjqXK1ZB
— Byron York (@ByronYork) March 27, 2020
In the most recent Washington Post poll, President Trump’s approval hit an all-time high at 48% approval, and the disapproval rating was at an all-time low of 46%. Poll-voters seem to have done a 180 after Trump’s initial reaction to the coronavirus. Will this help his odds to win the upcoming election? Expect odds to be reflected in late March or early April. This is a big swing in the pools for the Washington Post, as you can see in the numbers above.
Trump Becomes Underdog for the First Time on March 16
Your new favorite for President: Joe Biden https://t.co/SnILGbpCXi
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) March 16, 2020
Due to the handling of the Coronavirus COVID-19 and other factors, President Donald Trump’s odds have now fallen far enough that he is now an underdog to be the next US President. As of Monday, March 16th, former Vice President Joe Biden is the favorite to be the next Commander-In-Chief. At European and offshore sportsbooks, Trump’s odds have gradually fallen throughout 2020 and as of March 16th he was an underdog at +110.
Live from his home in Delaware, @JoeBiden tells @TheView he starts his mornings with an hour and a half briefing about the coronavirus from his team of medical experts, followed by another hour and a half briefing with his economic team pic.twitter.com/Bj9Gs3UFol
— Arlette Saenz (@ArletteSaenz) March 24, 2020
After what seemed like quite a long absence, likely Democratic Nomination winner Joe Biden spoke to the public from his Delaware home on ABC’s “TheView”. Biden discussed recent briefings he’s had about the coronavirus COVID-19, the economy, and more. With this statement and “public appearance” from Biden, keep an eye on his presidential odds in the coming days.
Andrew Cuomo and Nikki Haley Join the “Race”?
Now, this seems farfetched but there is some movement here, quite literally. Per ElectionBettingOdds.com, former Boeing Board Member and Governor Nikki Haley and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo have been added to the list in terms of having odds to be the next President of the United States. On offshore sportsbook, Nikki Haley is +3300 to be the Republican Candidate for the US Election. The sites also offers Haley and Cuomo to be the next president.
US Presidential Election Odds at an offshore sportsbook:
- Trump -105
- Biden +105
- Sanders +4000
- Cuomo +5000
- Pence +5000
- Clinton +6000
- Haley +10000
While unlikely to happen, it is saying something that both “candidates” were added to offshore sportsbooks.
Confession: I look forward to watching Gov. Cuomo’s press conference every day. I get a kick how he talks about govt issues and then goes into a therapy session. #MyDailyConfessionDuringCorona
— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) March 21, 2020
Donald Trump’s Administration Files Charges Against Venezuela, Aims to Help Presidential Bid
US to announce filing of criminal charges against senior officials of the government of Venezuela, including President Nicolás Maduro, accusing them of involvement in the country's illegal drug trafficking, officials say. https://t.co/ETrMAEz045
— Breaking News (@BreakingNews) March 26, 2020
For decades, election years have always been filled with news. Presidents of years past have always tried to gain any bit of good news or momentum in the election year in hopes of helping the re-election chances. Donald Trump is no different, as his administration has announced the US government will bring criminal charges against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his administration. The charges are involved with drug trafficking. This is big news that may slip under the radar during the coronavirus pandemic, but something that would certainly help Trump’s odds in some facets to win the next election if action brings results.
How Will the Stimulus Package Affect Presidential Odds?
.@SenSchumer tells us there’s a “very strong provision” in COVID-19 stimulus bill that blocks “any powerful official,” including President Trump, from getting the loans.
— The View (@TheView) March 25, 2020
With a record-setting relief bill set to be signed at any moment, the odds on the presidential election will certainly be worth watching. What promises to be north of $2T in relief, Donald Trump and both sides of the government have a bill that is set to relieve Americans of financial worry, companies, small businesses, and even a direct payment to Americans. Will this help Trump’s election odds? Will it hurt? Time will tell, but this is monumental news during the coronavirus crisis and will certainly affect the political landscape. The fact that the bill is not set to benefit those in office should help, as that was a large concern from the Democratic Party during bill negotiations.
To no one’s surprise, the President’s approval rating fell during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in America per TheHill.com. The stock market has fallen, cancellations everywhere, sports leagues have been suspended and more. The poll on March 8th showed a 54% approval rating, and recently that has dropped to 46% of voters, in just a week’s time. Quite frequently when there are natural disasters, attacks, or outbreaks, the approval rating of presidents and administrations drops or increases based on how the response to the event. The criticism of Trump’s handling of this has not been shy, and whether it is agreed or disagreed, the polling voters are trending heavily to disagreeing with how it is being handled.
2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ODDS FAQ
Is it legal bet on the Presidential Election in the United States?
Currently, the answer to this question is no, you can't legally bet on the 2020 election in the United States. The state of West Virginia did try to add political betting props as an option earlier this year but it was quickly removed.
What are President Trump's re-election odds?
The odds for President Trump to be re-elected in 2020 have moved rapidly. The COVID-19 crisis has impacted his odds tremendously moving from -167 to -110.
What are political prop bets or betting odds?
An example of a political prop bet or election betting odds would be the following:
“Who will win the 2020 United States Presidential Election?”
Donald Trump -110
Joe Biden +140
The minus symbol indicates that President Trump is the favorite to win the 2020 election. If you risk $110, you will win $100 on Trump. If you bet $100 on Joe Biden at +140 odds, you would win $140, plus your original wager of $100.