2020 Presidential Election Odds: Trump Leads, Biden Drops, Clinton Odds Rise


The 2020 US Presidential Election will be one for the ages, and the betting markets surrounding the election and even the primaries are very, very interesting to follow. Of course, this is after a 2016 election that saw a massive swing in projections, votes, odds, and more leading to Donald Trump being the 45th President of the United States. During the election, books that offered election odds saw Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump’s odds soar, drop, and level out all in a short amount of time. That sports betting market set the precedence for what promises to be another popular election from a betting perspective.

Let’s take a look at the current betting odds, betting history, primaries, and other political betting props offered at various sportsbooks around the world.

 

Latest Odds to Win 2020 Election – Clinton and Michelle Obama Move Up

Candidate Current
Donald Trump -134
Joe Biden +140
Hillary Clinton +2500
Michelle Obama +4000
Andrew Cuomo +5000
Bernie Sanders +8000
Mike Pence +8000

As of May 20th, 2020, Donald Trump is the favorite at -134 to win the 2020 election, and Joe Biden is behind him at +140. That is a given and will likely remain close as far as prices leading up to the election. But the movement in the other candidates has been very interesting of late. Third behind Trump and Biden is Hillary Clinton, who is now +2500 to win the 2020 election, despite not being an official candidate. In addition, former First Lady Michelle Obama is +4000 to be the next President of the United States, despite also not being a candidate. While very likely to be just Trump vs. Biden, the movement of other candidates is certainly interesting as we head into the summer before the election. Recently, Donald Trump has moved slightly from -125 to this -134.

 

US Presidential Election Odds Movement

Candidate Current Odds May 14 May 8 May 3 April 30 April 25 April 17 March 29 March 17 March 10 March 4 March 2 Feb 26
Donald Trump -134 -125 -121 -121 -121 -118 -125 -110 +100 -125 -162 -167 -162
Joe Biden +140 +135 +140 +135 +120 +115 +125 +110 +110 +120 +160 +350 +1700
Mike Pence +8000 +6600 +6600 +5000 +5000 +5000 +4000 +3300 +2500 +1200 +800 +325 +250
Hillary Clinton +2500 +2500 +2500 +2500 +5000 +4000 +4000 +2500 +2500 +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000
Bernie Sanders +8000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +8000 +10000 +10000 +3300 +3300 +5000 +15000 +10000 +10000
Michelle Obama +4000 +4000 +5000 +5000 +6600 +6600 +5000 +5000 +5000 +15000 +25000 +20000 +15000
Andrew Cuomo +5000 +5000 +4000 +4000 +5000 +5000 +3300 +3300

 

Contents show

Odds movement in the President Election betting market is crazy. The chart alone tells the story, but think about it this way. In a few months, Joe Biden went from +1700 and higher and not even a lock to win the Democratic Nominee to the favorite to be President, and back to the runner-up in terms of odds. Currently, Joe Biden sits at +140 behind Donald Trump’s -134 and he has fallen of late. Trump’s odds have changed drastically. as well, going from -162 pre-pandemic to +100, and now back over -130.

Vice President Mike Pence has seen his share of crazy odds movements as well, as he has gone from +250 to +8000 in a few months. We have seen candidates such as Elizabeth Warren, Michael Bloomberg, and Bernie Sanders drop out of the race and out of the odds listing, but we have also seen Bernie Sanders’ odds rise after he dropped out of the race. Now, we have seen Hillary Clinton’s odds skyrocket to +2500 after being at +5000. In addition, former First Lady Michelle Obama has seen her odds rise all the way up to +4000, with some recent momentum in May 2020. The odds are not done moving, so keep an eye on them going forward.

 

Current Democratic Nomination Odds: Hillary Clinton on the Rise

With Donald Trump set to run for a second term, most of the attention in early 2020 has been set on the Democratic Primary race. Let’s take a look at the latest odds:

  • Joe Biden -715
  • Hillary Clinton +650
  • Michelle Obama +2000
  • Andrew Cuomo +3300
  • Bernie Sanders +5000

Then there was one. With news of Tulsi Gabbard dropping from the race, there were just three candidates on many sportsbooks to win the Democratic Nomination. In reality, the only two candidates running were Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, but Sanders’ campaign is now suspended as of early April, leaving only Joe Biden as an official candidate. Let’s look at how the odds have changed.

Super Tuesday changed everything. Joe Biden’s odds rocketed to -455 to win the Democratic Nomination, and Bernie Sanders fell all the way to +450. With Michael Bloomberg dropping out of the race to support Biden, the momentum for the former Vice President was at an all-time high. The odds clearly reflected that, as more movement came after the March 10th primaries, with Bernie Sanders falling to +1400, which was the exact same as Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Nomination. After the pandemic officially hit the US, Biden remained at -2500, but Hillary Clinton took second at +800 with Bernie Sanders falling to +1700 to win the Democratic Nomination. As of late March after the stimulus package was approved, the odds moved yet again. Since Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race in early April, his odds have fallen to +8000, then shot back up in May, and Biden’s have surged to -2000, but down to -715 with Hillary Clinton behind him. It is clearly Joe Biden’s primary to lose, but is he losing it? Hillary Clinton is now +650 to win the Democratic Nomination, and Michelle Obama is now +2000, down from +1700 in May.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has been a comforting voice to some during the COVID-19 crisis. His odds have remained unchanged as of immediately after Sanders’ suspended campaign, but some believe there will be momentum for Cuomo if Joe Biden slips.

 

Kamala Harris is the Favorite to be Joe Biden’s Running Mate

Democratic VP Candidate Odds
Kamala Harris +180
Amy Klobuchar +300
Elizabeth Warren +700
Michelle Obama +800
Gretchen Whitmer +1000
Val Demings +1200
Stacey Abrams +1400
Hillary Clinton +2000
Catherine Cortez Masto +2000

With Joe Biden announcing his running mate will be a woman in the 2020 election, the odds have shifted in this market. Currently, the leader is Kamala Harris at +180. WIth that said, Amy Klobuchar is right behind her at +300, the highest her odds have been during the process. Gretchen Whitmer saw her odds come out of nowhere after a tweet in late March to be +500 to be Biden’s running mate, but have since tamed down to +1000. There are two things we know. One, his running mate will be a woman per his tweet. Two, we will have to wait with the DNC convention delayed until August. With the clear momentum Kamala Harris has, it seems quite likely she will be the choice. Keep an eye on Elizabeth Warren though, as her odds have risen to +500 in late April, then to +450 in early May, but back to +700 in late May. Former First Lady Michelle Obama is +800 to be the VP choice.

 

PredictIt Currently Projects the Democratic Party Will Win the Electoral College

The “stock market for politics” website PredictIt currently has the Democratic Party at 290 electoral votes using its software. PredictIt takes a deep look at each state and looks to stay ahead of the curve in predicting which state will be red, which will be blue, and tally the votes based on its “market”. As of May 20:

  • Democratic Party – 290 Electoral Votes
  • Republican Party – 248 Electoral Votes
  • Florida – Republican (53c)
  • Pennsylvania – Democratic (64c)

With this being said, PredictIt also has Trump at 49c, and Biden at 44c to be the winner of the 2020 Election.

 

Elizabeth Warren Endorses Joe Biden with Video

Another former Democratic Nomination candidate endorses Joe Biden, as the party looks to have full backing of Biden who is all but set to be the Democratic Nominee. Warren posted nearly a four-minute video explaining why she will be backing former Vice President Biden. Then, as a follow-up she tweeted to be sure to chip in to Joe Biden’s campaign. It seems the party now has fully backed Joe Biden.

 

Bernie Sanders Backs Joe Biden

Former Democratic Nomination candidate Bernie Sanders has officially backed Joe Biden, stating that he will be a better president than Donald Trump. It was unclear whether or not Sanders would back Joe Biden, but this is certainly a help for Biden’s prospects given the popularity of the younger demographic of Sanders’ background.

 

Bernie Sanders Drops Out – Suspends Presidential Campaign

The inevitable has happened, as Bernie Sanders has suspended his campaign to be the next President of the USA, as he announced to his staff and on a conference call on Wednesday, April 8th. Bernie Sanders’ odds have fallen in recent months as he was passed by Joe Biden and other Democratic candidates that are not even listed in the race. By default, this means that Joe Biden is all but set to be the next Democratic Nominee for President of the United States. For more details, click here.

 

Donald Trump 2020 Election Special Bets

  • Win Electoral College, Lose Popular Vote +200 (was +150)
  • Lose Electoral College, Lose Popular Vote +110 (was +125)
  • Win Electoral College, Win Popular Vote +300 (was +250)
  • Lose Electoral College, Win Popular Vote +2500 (was +1400)

Some sportsbooks are offering “special bets” on what will occur for Donald Trump in the 2020 election. The above scenarios are quite interesting for bettors. There are four possible scenarios for a candidate in an election, because of the popular vote and the electoral college. Currently, the favorite for Trump is to lose the Electoral College and lose the popular vote at +110, despite him being a “pick ’em” to win the Presidency. The longshot at +2500 is for Trump to win the popular vote, but lose the Electoral College. What a scenario that would be, but those odds have fallen from +1400.

These books have different prices than some others, which lead to one very obvious assumption. Given the odds of these four scenarios, there is a lot that will change in the coming months.

 

No Election Betting in the US Costing Operators Billions

It is no secret that one of the most popular betting markets around the world is the US Presidential Election. But in the United States, it is not legal to be wagered on. That is costing US sportsbook operators a ton of money. For example, it has been estimated that over $10M was wagered on the 1916 election, where Woodrow Wilson defeated Charles Evan Hughes. $10M then is equivalent to around $240M today and of course 100 years ago the technology was nowhere close to what it is today for betting.

Vegas oddsmaker John Murray, of SuperBook, says: “The handle would be astronomical. It’s just something that everyone has an opinion on. Everyone thinks they know more about it than the next guy. It’s such a polarizing topic, even more than sports.” Sarbjit Bakhshi, of Smarkets in London, is quoted saying that US sportsbooks are leaving “billions of dollars” on the table by not allowing wagering on political elections. As most anticipate, just because it is not legal and regulated does not mean it still is not happening. Offshore and black market sportsbooks allow for betting on the elections, as well as overseas betting operators. Bakhshi mentions “As long as you exclude popular bets like those betting on the presidential election, people will turn to the offshore market, leaving those bets in the hands of unscrupulous operators.” Overseas in the UK, the regulation of sports betting and gambling was to keep it out of the black market. Political betting is happening everywhere, so why not legalize and regulate it?

In 2013, the Nevada government attempted to allow betting on elections but the legislation was not passed. There has been no attempt to revamp that since then. Other states such as Pennsylvania and New Jersey have laws specific to sports betting, so would not be able to offer bets on the elections either.

 

2020 Super Tuesday Results

Super Tuesday is the single biggest day for the primary vote in US politics, as nearly one-third of all the delegates are announced and it is a very clear indication of usually who wins the Presidential Nomination. Let’s take a look at the 2020 Super Tuesday results, by state.

State Winner of Super Tuesday
Alabama Joe Biden
American Samoa Michael Bloomberg
Arkansas Joe Biden
California Bernie Sanders
Colorado Bernie Sanders
Maine Joe Biden
Massachusetts Joe Biden
Minnesota Joe Biden
North Carolina Joe Biden
Oklahoma Joe Biden
Tennessee Joe Biden
Texas Joe Biden
Utah Bernie Sanders
Vermont Bernie Sanders
Virginia Joe Biden

 

Democratic Nomination Delegate Count

As of April 29th, the total delegates for remaining Democratic Candidates are:

  • Joe Biden – 1457
  • Bernie Sanders – 973
  • Elizabeth Warren – 76
  • Michael Bloomberg – 49
  • Pete Buttigieg – 26
  • Amy Klobuchar – 7
  • Tulsi Gabbard – 2

Bold are current candidates.

Source: nbcnews.com

 

2020 Presidential Election Primary Calendar and Key Dates

  • May 12 – Nebraska primaries
  • May 19 – Oregon primaries
  • May 22 – Hawaii primaries
  • June 2 – Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Indiana, Maryland, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota primaries
  • June 9 – George and West Virginia primaries
  • June 20 – Louisiana primaries
  • June 23 – Kentucky primaries
  • July 7 – New Jersey primaries
  • August 17 – Democratic National Convention
  • August 24 – Republican National Convention
  • November 3 – Election Day

 

Biden Favorite to win Democratic Nomination After Sanders Drops Out, Hillary Clinton Rises

Entering Super Tuesday, Joe Biden was the favorite for the Democratic Nomination across many offshore and overseas sports betting operators. After Super Tuesday, his odds skyrocketed. Biden had as high as an 88% chance to win the nomination at BetFair after Super Tuesday, and those odds increased after the March 10th primaries. Since the March 17th primaries, Biden has continued to close the gap, and Hillary Clinton remains ahead of Bernie Sanders. With Bernie Sanders dropping out of the race, the presumptive winner is Joe Biden, but odds include other candidates, despite this.

Here is a look at some information from RealClearPolitics.com, on the markets overseas for the US Democratic Nomination.

Odds to Win Democratic Nomination Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Andrew Cuomo Michelle Obama
RCP Average 83.5% 10.8% 3.9% 2.6%
Smarkets 81% 9% 3% 2%
SpreadEx 85% 11% 3% 3%
BetVictor 86% 12% 5% 3%
Betfair 84% 11% 4% 3%

As of early May, RealClearPolitics has focused around Joe Biden as their average and nearly all overseas markets have his odds set at around 83.5% to win the Democratic Nomination, which is dropping quickly from the 90s. Hillary Clinton has gained some traction as far as odds are concerned, as she is as high as 12% at some UK books. With rumors swirling, these odds could change in a heartbeat.

 

Can You Bet on the Presidential Elections in the US?

As of April 2020, betting on presidential elections (or elections of any kind for public office) are not permitted. FanDuel Sportsbook posted odds in West Virginia for a brief period, but that was deemed as a mistake given the way the law is written has has not been amended.  Do not expect to be able to wager on the 2020 election legally in the US, but if that changes we will update.

 

Other 2020 Presidential Election News

 

Michigan Governor Whitmer’s Odds Rise to be Biden’s Running Mate

Our of nowhere, Governor Whitmer’s odds boomed to +500 (from +800) to be former Vice President Joe Biden’s running mate. After her vocal stand and response during the coronavirus (above), she became popular in some betting circles to be the next nominee for Vice President. Joe Biden went as far as to say this about Whitmer on his podcast: “Gov. Whitmer is an outstanding governor. She is one of the most talented people in the country in my view. She also is a supporter. She was also a co-chair of my campaign. She’s a good friend, but she has been laser focused, laser focused on delivering for her state.” Look for Whitmer’s odds to continue to climb to be Joe Biden’s running mate.

 

Democratic National Convention Postponed Due to Coronavirus

The Democratic National Committee has postponed its July convention in Milwaukee amidst the coronavirus pandemic. It has been moved to the week of August 17th, which is more than a month after the original July 13th date. CEO of the Democratic National Convention Committee Joe Solmonese explained:

“In our current climate of uncertainty, we believe the smartest approach is to take additional time to monitor how this situation unfolds so we can best position our party for a safe and successful convention. During this critical time, when the scope and scale of the pandemic and its impact remain unknown, we will continue to monitor the situation and follow the advice of health care professionals and emergency responders.”

Keep in mind, Joe Biden mentioned that he believed the convention would have to be postponed on the NBC’s “The Tonight Show”.

 

Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Presidential Election Odds Rise at UK Books

In a recent article from the Washington Examiner, New York Governor Cuomo has seen his odds to win the 2020 Election skyrocket during the coronavirus crisis. According to UK political odds site Oddscheckers, Cuomo is now 25:1 at some books, and is +3300 at popular ones to win the presidency, which is tied or ahead of Bernie Sanders (+3300) and only behind Donald Trump and Joe Biden. A lot would have to happen for Cuomo to even be in the running for President of the United States, but even current President Trump believes he would be a better candidate than Joe Biden. This could have helped spark Cuomo’s odds.

 

Trump’s Approval Rating Rises in Latest Poll

In the most recent Washington Post poll, President Trump’s approval hit an all-time high at 48% approval, and the disapproval rating was at an all-time low of 46%. Poll-voters seem to have done a 180 after Trump’s initial reaction to the coronavirus. Will this help his odds to win the upcoming election? Expect odds to be reflected in late March or early April. This is a big swing in the pools for the Washington Post, as you can see in the numbers above.

 

Trump Becomes Underdog for the First Time on March 16

Due to the handling of the Coronavirus COVID-19 and other factors, President Donald Trump’s odds have now fallen far enough that he is now an underdog to be the next US President. As of Monday, March 16th, former Vice President Joe Biden is the favorite to be the next Commander-In-Chief. At European and offshore sportsbooks, Trump’s odds have gradually fallen throughout 2020 and as of March 16th he was an underdog at +110.

 

Tulsi Gabbard Drops Out of the Race

Then there were two. With the latest news of Hawaiian rep Tulsi Gabbard dropping out, that leaves just Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders left in the Democratic Primary. Gabbard is backing Joe Biden, as she is quoted in saying: “by the spirit of aloha, respect and compassion”. Gabbard was never truly a candidate to win, but she had continued her campaign through the majority of the primaries. With just two candidates left in Biden and Sanders, expect both to have their odds rise “slightly” amongst betting markets. Details from Bloomberg.

 

Bernie Sanders to Drop Out of the Presidential Election?

As the Washington Post reports, Bernie Sanders may be next to drop out of the election. His campaign suspended Facebook ads, and stopped asking for donations. The tea leaves read the end of the Sanders campaign for the 2020 race. His twitter account still continues to share thoughts, but when will that end?

 

Joe Biden Speaks on Coronavirus, Economy

After what seemed like quite a long absence, likely Democratic Nomination winner Joe Biden spoke to the public from his Delaware home on ABC’s “TheView”. Biden discussed recent briefings he’s had about the coronavirus COVID-19, the economy, and more. With this statement and “public appearance” from Biden, keep an eye on his presidential odds in the coming days.

 

Andrew Cuomo and Nikki Haley Join the “Race”?

Now, this seems farfetched but there is some movement here, quite literally. Per ElectionBettingOdds.com, former Boeing Board Member and Governor Nikki Haley and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo have been added to the list in terms of having odds to be the next President of the United States. On offshore sportsbook, Nikki Haley is +3300 to be the Republican Candidate for the US Election. The sites also offers Haley and Cuomo to be the next president.

US Presidential Election Odds at an offshore sportsbook:

  • Trump -105
  • Biden +105
  • Sanders +4000
  • Cuomo +5000
  • Pence +5000
  • Clinton +6000
  • Haley +10000

While unlikely to happen, it is saying something that both “candidates” were added to offshore sportsbooks.

 

Donald Trump’s Administration Files Charges Against Venezuela, Aims to Help Presidential Bid

For decades, election years have always been filled with news. Presidents of years past have always tried to gain any bit of good news or momentum in the election year in hopes of helping the re-election chances. Donald Trump is no different, as his administration has announced the US government will bring criminal charges against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his administration. The charges are involved with drug trafficking. This is big news that may slip under the radar during the coronavirus pandemic, but something that would certainly help Trump’s odds in some facets to win the next election if action brings results.

 

How Will the Stimulus Package Affect Presidential Odds?

With a record-setting relief bill set to be signed at any moment, the odds on the presidential election will certainly be worth watching. What promises to be north of $2T in relief, Donald Trump and both sides of the government have a bill that is set to relieve Americans of financial worry, companies, small businesses, and even a direct payment to Americans. Will this help Trump’s election odds? Will it hurt? Time will tell, but this is monumental news during the coronavirus crisis and will certainly affect the political landscape. The fact that the bill is not set to benefit those in office should help, as that was a large concern from the Democratic Party during bill negotiations.

 

Trump Approval Rating Dips with Initial Coronavirus COVID-19 Response

To no one’s surprise, the President’s approval rating fell during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in America per TheHill.com. The stock market has fallen, cancellations everywhere, sports leagues have been suspended and more. The poll on March 8th showed a 54% approval rating, and recently that has dropped to 46% of voters, in just a week’s time. Quite frequently when there are natural disasters, attacks, or outbreaks, the approval rating of presidents and administrations drops or increases based on how the response to the event. The criticism of Trump’s handling of this has not been shy, and whether it is agreed or disagreed, the polling voters are trending heavily to disagreeing with how it is being handled.

Information provided by Hill-Harrix poll via TheHill.com

 

Elizabeth Warren Drops Out

Democratic Primary candidate Elizabeth Warren has dropped out of the presidential race as well, leaving the only true candidates to be Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, officially.

2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ODDS FAQ

Is it legal bet on the Presidential Election in the United States?

Currently, the answer to this question is no, you can't legally bet on the 2020 election in the United States. The state of West Virginia did try to add political betting props as an option earlier this year but it was quickly removed.

What are President Trump's re-election odds?

The odds for President Trump to be re-elected in 2020 have moved rapidly. The COVID-19 crisis has impacted his odds tremendously moving from -167 to -110.

What are political prop bets or betting odds?

An example of a political prop bet or election betting odds would be the following:
“Who will win the 2020 United States Presidential Election?”
Donald Trump -110
Joe Biden +140
The minus symbol indicates that President Trump is the favorite to win the 2020 election. If you risk $110, you will win $100 on Trump. If you bet $100 on Joe Biden at +140 odds, you would win $140, plus your original wager of $100.

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