- The Las Vegas Raiders are +3 against the Miami Dolphins on Saturday night in Week 16. The total is set to 47.5 points.
- The Dolphins are 11-3 against the spread and 4-1 outright as the favorite this season.
- The Raiders have hit the over in 11 of 14 games this season.
- Miami leads the NFL in takeaways this year (26).
The Oakland Raiders (7-7) are facing a must-win game against the Miami Dolphins (9-5) this Saturday. Should Miami beat Las Vegas, the Raiders will be officially eliminated from the playoffs and it will mark the fourth consecutive season where they finish without a winning record.
Needless to say, there is plenty on the line for the Raiders this weekend. The Dolphins can’t clinch a playoff spot with a win, but they can put themselves in a comfortable position entering Week 17.
This Action Rush NFL betting guide provides odds, props, and analysis for the Raiders-Dolphins Saturday night Week 16 matchup.
Raiders – Dolphins Week 16 Odds
The Raiders are +3 against the Dolphins this weekend. The moneyline odds have Las Vegas at +140 and Miami at -156. The total is set to 47.5 points, but there is some variation on that number depending on what sportsbook you look at.
The Dolphins are among the best teams in the NFL against the spread. They are 11-3 against the spread and have won four of five games outright as the favorite. The Raiders are an even 7-7 against the spread, but they are an astounding 11-3 on over-unders this season.
Who is the public betting on?
Below is the latest public betting info from BetMGM. As you can see, the public is HEAVY on the Dolphins.
Most bet games (ticket count):
1. Dolphins -3 (at Raiders)
2. Titans +3.5 (at Packers)
3. Cardinals -5 (vs. 49ers)
4. Washington -1 (vs. Panthers)
5. Jaguars +7.5 (vs. Bears)
1. Dolphins -3 (at Raiders)
2. Browns -9.5 (at Jets)
3. Cardinals -5 (vs. 49ers)
4. Titans +3.5 (at Packers)
5. Washington -1 (vs. Panthers)
Dolphins vs. Raiders Player Props
|Passer||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)||21.5 (Ov +100 / Un -120)||229.5 (Ov -120 / Un +100)||1.5 (Ov -105 / Un -115)|
|Derek Carr (Raiders)||22.5 (Ov -118 / Un -108)||234.5 (Ov -125 / Un +100)||1.5 (Ov -110 / Un -110)|
|Rusher||Rushing Attempts||Rushing Yards||Total Yards|
|Josh Jacobs (Raiders)||17.5 (Ov +110 / Un -140)||71.5 (Ov +100 / Un -120)||89.5 (Ov -115 / Un -105)|
|Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)||NA||13.5 (Ov -115 / Un -105)||NA|
|Myles Gaskin (Dolphins)||12.5 (Ov +100 / Un -125)||50.5 (Ov -110 / Un -110)||70.5 (Ov -115 / Un -105)|
|Receiver||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Josh Jacobs (Raiders)||2.5 (Ov +105 / Un -130)||15.5 (Ov -110 / Un -110)||9.5 (Ov -115 / Un -105)|
|Nelson Agholor (Raiders)||3.5 (Ov -115 / Un -105)||46.5 (Ov -110 / Un -110)||21.5 (Ov -105 / Un -115)|
|Darren Waller (Raiders)||5.5 (Ov +110 / Un -135)||55.5 (Ov -115 / Un -105)||20.5 (Ov -105 / Un -115)|
|DeVante Parker (Dolphins)||3.5 (Ov -130 / Un +105)||46.5 (Ov -105 / Un -115)||19.5 (Ov -115 / Un -105)|
|Myles Gaskin (Dolphins)||2.5 (Ov -105 / Un -115)||16.5 (Ov -115 / Un -105)||9.5 (Ov -130 / Un +105)|
Game Preview and Betting Angles
If Marcus Mariota starts in place of the ailing Derek Carr, it will be the first time in NFL history that two Hawaii-born quarterbacks will start against each other. Of course, rookie Tua Tagovailoa will get the start for the Dolphins.
Although all eyes will be on the quarterbacks, the story of this game will likely be told by the defenses. Miami boasts one of the best defensive units in the league while the Raiders have struggled mightily on that side of the ball this season.
It’s tough to predict which quarterback will start for the Raiders. Derek Carr was a full participant in practice this week, but groin injuries can be tricky. On the bright side, this makes it difficult for Miami to prepare for Las Vegas. Carr and Mariota play two different styles and that could leave Miami guessing.
No matter who is under center, Miami knows they are going to have to keep tabs on tight end Darren Waller. The Pro Bowler is having an absolutely dominant season and last week was one of the best performances of his career. He caught nine balls for 150 yards and a touchdown. Waller is the best option for whoever the Raiders start at quarterback.
The Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They rank 29th scoring defense, 25th total defense, and 27th in takeaways. They allowed rookie quarterback Justin Herbert to explode for 314 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15. Figuring out how to slow down another rookie passer is going to be at the top of Jon Gruden’s list of priorities going into this Week 16 matchup.
There is no doubt about it, Miami’s strength is in its defense. Although they are in the middle of the pack when it comes to total defense, they are allowing just 18.4 points per game, which is tops in the NFL. The biggest reason for their strong defense is their ability to force turnovers. They rank first in takeaways (26) and third in turnover differential (+10).
Their strong pass rush tends to lead to many of these big plays. Emmanuel Ogbah already has nine sacks and three forced fumbles on the season. The pass-rushing unit got to Cam Newton three times in their victory over the Patriots last week. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, if the Dolphins can generate consistent pressure, it should lead to takeaways and big plays.
Tua Tagovailoa entered the NFL with big-time expectations, but he has yet to really shine as a rookie. He’s averaging under 200 passing yards per game as a starter. Even though he is not putting up big numbers, Tagovailoa’s ability to take care of the football shouldn’t go overlooked. He only has three turnovers in seven starts and that’s the perfect recipe with Miami’s swarming defense.
Win the field position battle, take care of the football, and capitalize on the opponent’s mistakes. That’s the formula for Miami right now.
How To Watch Raiders – Dolphins
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 26
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, Nevada)
- TV: NFL Network
Prediction: Dolphins Cover, Raiders Rollover
The Dolphins have been absolutely dominant against the spread this year. Although the Raiders have had their moments in 2020, it feels like they are on the downswing after their brutal overtime loss to the Chargers last week. Miami’s defense is too strong and they should be able to shut down whichever quarterback gets the start.
Take the Dolphins laying the points, but if you are afraid of that +3 spread, take Miami on the moneyline.
Final Score Prediction: Dolphins win 23-17
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