It’s hard to be a Super Bowl winning QB and still be underrated and even under-appreciated.
Yet, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson may actually fall into that category.
Russell Wilson has NEVER received a single MVP vote.
Every vote cast since he entered the NFL:
1 Palmer pic.twitter.com/5NhKuMMzLq
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 12, 2020
Besides playing in two consecutive Super Bowls and owning a career record of 86-41-1, Wilson was reportedly considered as a trade candidate to the Cleveland Browns the year they held the number one spot in the NFL Draft.
So despite 0 MVP votes and a potential trade to the doormat team of the last 20-plus seasons in the NFL, prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook are now out for Wilson, who enters his ninth year in the league.
Most TDs on throws beyond 20+ yards since 2012
1. Russell Wilson – 83
2. Drew Brees – 69
3. Aaron Rodgers – 62
4. Ben Roethlisberger – 60 pic.twitter.com/96GYranu6H
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) May 12, 2020
Russell Wilson Overview
Wilson and the Seahawks are coming off an 11-5 campaign, finishing as the fifth seed in the NFC Playoffs. For the third consecutive year, he threw for over 30 touchdowns, and finished with a career low five interceptions. His 4,110 passing yards were the second highest of his career in Seattle. For 2020, Seattle is projected to make the playoffs (-137 on DK Sportsbook) with an over/under win total of 9.
Over/Under 30.5 Passing Touchdowns?
Since 2015, Wilson has thrown for UNDER 30.5 touchdowns just once, with a stunning 21 in 2016. However, he’s thrown for 34, 34, 35 in every year besides the anomaly season four years ago. Via Team Rankings, the Seahawks finished third in the NFL in rushing plays with 481, rushing just under 46% of the time and Wilson still hit over 30 TDs. He’s also never missed in a start in nine years, with many of those seasons behind a brutal offensive line. Even with the offseason acquisition of Greg Olsen and a sophomore campaign from promising wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, it feels like Russ at some point will regress. Remember, he has the most fourth quarter and overtime comebacks since he’s entered the NFL, and if Seattle is up, they tend to run heavy. It’s contrarian considering his skill set, but I lean under here.
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) May 13, 2020
Over/Under 4000.5 Passing Yards?
What continues to remain remarkable is Wilson’s ability to make the most out of every passing attempt. Despite Seattle’s want to “establish the run,” As noted above by Pro Football Focus, Wilson is second behind Patrick Mahomes in most touchdowns over 20+ yards since 2018, and as pointed out below, he maximizes every passing attempt to put up staggering numbers with the least bit of volume.
The #Seahawks passed 54% of the time – the 6th lowest rate in the league. Russell Wilson finished 6th overall in passing yards. Talk about efficiency…
— Rohan Sanghani (@RohanSanghani4) May 10, 2020
However, when it comes to passing yards, Russ has done it three times, but only once in the last three years and barely made it over in 2015 with 4,024 to end the season. With another running back added to the Seahawks stable this year, most would argue that even with more of a commitment to the run, it would limit Wilson’s passing yards. However, if more running backs can extend plays and create on their own, that becomes more incentive for Wilson to run less, and throw more. In an aggressive and competitive division, provided he stays healthy, I’d give a slight lean on the over for passing yards, even if the touchdowns are slightly less.