Last Updated on July 1, 2021
The NFL is stacked with talent at every offensive position it seems. With the season fast approaching, William Hill Sportsbook is already taking a look at season-long player futures at the skill positions.
The usual names like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Derrick Henry, and Stefon Diggs are among the favorites, but there is going to be some value on the underdogs this year.
Health is the biggest factor when it comes to betting on player futures. Let’s take a look at the odds.
William Hill’s NFL Player Prop Stat Leaders
Thanks to William Hill Sportsbook, we already have NFL futures odds on top yardage leader in passing, rushing, and receiving:
William Hill released 🏈 player props for passing, rushing and receiving yardage leaders!
"The rushing and receiving leaders are so wide open, I’d be looking at some long shots for each of those.” – Nick Bogdanovich
Check out the latest odds and read more ⬇️
— William Hill US (@WilliamHillUS) June 30, 2021
Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to lead the league in yards at +500. That should come as no surprise, but what might shock you is that Mahomes did not lead the NFL in passing yards in any of his last three seasons. He’s come close every year but hasn’t been able to take the title.
Derrick Henry is the top dog on the rushing yards list after leading the league in each of the last two seasons. Henry is the engine that makes the Tennessee Titans go, but they might be throwing it a bit more after adding Julio Jones in the offseason.
As for receiving yards, William Hill Sportsbook has five different guys at +1200 — Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas.
Health is the Biggest Factor
Injuries are a part of the game in the NFL and they can change the fortunes of entire teams. An injury to any player will likely take them out of the running in any of these categories. Patrick Mahomes missed one game last season and lost the passing yards title to Deshaun Watson by 83 yards. One game is enough to change everything.
“Bottom line is, the winners in these markets are going to play all 17 games,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. “It’s just all accumulation. So you have to get lucky in picking guys that produce and stay healthy. The rushing and receiving leaders are so wide open, I’d be looking at some long shots for each of those.”
Longshots on Receiving Yards Prop Leaders
It’s tough to bet against Derrick Henry in the rushing yards category right now. He’s the two-time defending rushing yards king and is showing no signs of slowing down. Similarly, the passing yards title seems destined to go to Mahomes or Brady.
However, there is a ton of value on some of the longshots on receiving yards. Kenny Golladay is sitting at +2500 and he could be due for a monster year. Teams will have to respect Saquon Barkley, opening up holes over the top. If Daniel Jones has a breakout year, Golladay will flourish.
For a real longshot, don’t sleep on Cooper Kupp at +5000. Matthew Stafford is going to be the best quarterback he’s ever played with. Stafford also has no problem locking in on one receiver if he’s consistently winning his battles. If he can stay healthy, don’t be shocked when Kupp is putting up massive numbers.