Last Updated on May 9, 2020

Finally, live sports! UFC 249 on May 9th is the first live sports event in quite some time as far as major (or semi-major) sports are concerned in the United States. Of course, UFC 249 is highlighted by Ferguson and Gaethje, but there are a plethora of fights to wager on. This is a betting guide for UFC 249, with the best promotions, prices, and breakdowns of each matchup.

 

UFC 249 Betting Guide

With UFC 249 being the first semi-major sports event in what feels like months, this will be a very popular event as far as betting is concerned. We have compiled the top betting promotions, where to get the most for your money, and a breakdown of each fight on UFC 249. Here are the types of bets you can place for UFC 249:

  • Moneylines
  • Total Rounds
  • To Go the Distance
  • Winning Method
    • By KO
    • By Submission
    • By DQ
    • By Decision
  • Round Betting
    • To win in Round 1, 2, etc
    • Fight to Start Round
  • UFC Betting Props
    • Most Takedowns
    • Fight End in First Minute
    • Most Significant Strikes and more

Below you will find each fight, odds, and promotions for the UFC 249 event in Jacksonville, Florida.

 

– Top UFC 249 Betting Promotions –

 

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FOXBet UFC Match Bonus

FOXBet has the best bonus for UFC 249, as they are offering up to $500 in matched site credit. If you bet up to $500 on a UFC 249 fight, win or lose, you will receive the matched site credit. This is a terrific promotion from FOXBet. Take advantage of this promotion here!

Available in New Jersey and Pennsylvania

 

DraftKings Sportsbook UFC Profit Boost

Profit boosts are a great way for bettors to grow their bankroll at DraftKings Sportsbook. This is a 20% boost for your winnings on any UFC bet. The maximum for this promotion is $50, and the maximum additional winnings is capped at $250. Bet here!

Available in New Jersey, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and West Virginia

 

FanDuel Sportsbook UFC First Round Insurance

This is a terrific promotion for those playing UFC at FanDuel Sportsbook looking to grow their bankroll. If you bet on a method of victory for any fight and the fight ends in round one resulting in a lose for your wager, FanDuel Sportsbook will refund a site credit up to $50. Bet here!

Available in New Jersey, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and West Virginia

 

 

– UFC 249 Early Preliminary Fights –

 

Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey Betting Odds

UFC 249: Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey – Tale of the Tape
Spann vs. Alvey
17-5 Record 33-13
-420 ML Odds +325
Yes (+162) To Go the Distance No (-225)
Over 1.5 (-155) Total Rounds Under 1.5 (+116)
+140 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +600
+320 To Win by Submission +1500
+260 To Win by Decision +850
79% ML Splits (By Handle) 21%
79% ML Splits (By Bets) 21%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Ryan Spann is the clear favorite in this one, and five of his last six fights have resulted in a decision, with the fight going to distance. This will be Spann’s 19th fight in the last six years, and his sixth fight in the light heavyweight class.

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Vicente Luque vs Niko Price Betting Odds

UFC 249: Vicente Luque vs Niko Price – Tale of the Tape
Luque vs. Price
17-7-1 Record 14-3
-265 ML Odds +216
Yes (+300) To Go the Distance No (-455)
Over 1.5 (-106) Total Rounds Under 1.5 (-124)
+150 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +365
+250 To Win by Submission +1150
+460 To Win by Decision +1000
77% ML Splits (By Handle) 23%
67% ML Splits (By Bets) 33%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Vicente Luque is the clear favorite here at -265, and he has won his “last eight UFC fights against orthodox opponents”, per DraftKings. In addition, the odds on this fight to go the distance being “No” at -455 means one thing, this is very likely to be a finish. Just from looking at the odds, sportsbooks believe this fight will end in Luque winning by KO, TKO, or submission.

 

Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa Betting Odds

UFC 249: Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa – Tale of the Tape
Mitchell vs. Rosa
12-1 Record 12-3
-162 ML Odds +136
Yes (-159) To Go the Distance No (+120)
Over 2.5 (-200) Total Rounds Under 2.5 (+146)
+1000 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +1300
+250 To Win by Submission +600
+150 To Win by Decision +295
59% ML Splits (By Handle) 41%
66% ML Splits (By Bets) 34%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

This Mitchell vs. Rosa fight is quite close in terms of odds, with Mitchell being the favorite at -162. With just one loss in 13 tries in the UFC, Mitchell is looking to make it 13-1 and a very good start to a UFC career. The betting odds are split here, but more bettors have laid money on Mitchell to win the fight at -162 than the underdog at +136. What is interesting is that the underdog has won in three straight fights that Bryce Mitchell has been involved in.

 

– UFC 249 Prelims –

 

Uriah Hall vs Ronaldo Souza Betting Odds

UFC 249: Uriah Hall vs Ronaldo Souza – Tale of the Tape
Hall vs. Souza
16-9 Record 26-8
+106 ML Odds -125
Yes (+130) To Go the Distance No (-175)
Over 2.5 (-106) Total Rounds Under 2.5 (-125)
+240 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +615
+3000 To Win by Submission +250
+310 To Win by Decision +350
46% ML Splits (By Handle) 54%
50% ML Splits (By Bets) 50%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

This could end up being one of the closest fights in UFC 249, as the odds and betting splits are as close to even-sided as can be. Souza is a -125 favorite, but Hall is just a +106 underdog. In terms of betting splits, 46% of the money is on Hall, and the total bets are split 50/50. In each of the last five fights that Souza has been involved in in the middleweight class, the underdog has won.

 

Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson Betting Odds

UFC 249: Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson – Tale of the Tape
Esparza vs. Waterson
16-6 Record 17-7
-150 ML Odds +125
Yes (-480) To Go the Distance No (+320)
Over 2.5 (-590) Total Rounds Under 2.5 (+365)
+1000 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +1100
+1200 To Win by Submission +1200
-106 To Win by Decision +165
52% ML Splits (By Handle) 48%
39% ML Splits (By Bets) 61%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

This fight is certainly expected to go the distance, as the prop for the fight to last that long is “Yes” at -480 odds. Michelle Waterson has one three of her last four fights as an underdog, and comes in at +125 for UFC 249’s tilt with Carla Esparza.

 

Aleksei Oleinik vs Fabricio Werdum Betting Odds

UFC 249: Aleksei Oleiniik vs Fabricio Werdum – Tale of the Tape
Oleinik vs. Werdum
58-13-1 Record 23-8-1
+250 ML Odds -335
Yes (+215) To Go the Distance No (-305)
Over 1.5 (-139) Total Rounds Under 1.5 (+105)
+670 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +120
+650 To Win by Submission +420
+1100 To Win by Decision +300
41% ML Splits (By Handle) 59%
34% ML Splits (By Bets) 66%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

This is a better of the veterans, as there have been a combined 104 fights between these two fighters. Fabricio Werdum is the heavy favorite at -335, but Aleksei Oleinik has won 58 UFC battles in his career. Will the age affect Oleinik? If not, he is a +250 underdog to win.

 

Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis Betting Odds

UFC 249: Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis – Tale of the Tape
Cerrone vs. Pettis
36-14 Record 22-10
+118 ML Odds -143
Yes (+125) To Go the Distance No (-167)
Over 2.5 (+100) Total Rounds Under 2.5 (-134)
+450 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +210
+650 To Win by Submission +750
+333 To Win by Decision +300
33% ML Splits (By Handle) 67%
53% ML Splits (By Bets) 47%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

This is one of the top fights of the night, and is expected to be one of the most-bet events of the evening. Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis are well-known fighters, and have fought before. Pettis is the favorite at -143, but has lost seven of his last 11 fights. This will be one for the ages, and most of the money is on Pettis (67%).

 

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– UFC 249 Main Card- 

 

Greg Hardy vs Yorgan De Castro Betting Odds

UFC 249: Greg Hardy vs Yorgan De Castro – Tale of the Tape
Hardy vs. De Castro
5-2 Record 6-0
-200 ML Odds +165
Yes (+180) To Go the Distance No (-250)
Over 1.5 (-155) Total Rounds Under 1.5 (+115)
+140 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +210
+2600 To Win by Submission +2600
+250 To Win by Decision +900
55% ML Splits (By Handle) 45%
51% ML Splits (By Bets) 49%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

The first fight of the main card is former NFL player Greg Hardy looking to win his sixth career match in his eighth fight. Hardy fought five times in 2019, and looks to grow his name as a brawler in the octagon. More of the money is on Greg Hardy at 55% than De Castro, but he is a -200 favorite. De Castro is undefeated, but comes in at +165 to win.

 

Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar Betting Odds

UFC 249: Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar – Tale of the Tape
Stephens vs. Kattar
28-17 Record 20-4
+206 ML Odds -250
Yes (-167) To Go the Distance No (+123)
Over 2.5 (-182) Total Rounds Under 2.5 (+136)
+435 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +290
+2300 To Win by Submission +1000
+525 To Win by Decision +110
83% ML Splits (By Handle) 17%
68% ML Splits (By Bets) 32%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

The Stephens vs Kattar fight is likely to go the distance, as it is -167 on DraftKings Sportsbook. In addition, it is -182 to go 3 or more rounds as well. The majority of the bets are on Jeremy Stephens at +206, as 83% of the money on DraftKings Sportsbook has come on the underdog. This is a large liability.

 

Francis Ngannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Betting Odds

UFC 249: Francis Ngannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik – Tale of the Tape
Ngannou vs. Rozenstruik
14-3 Record 10-0
-278 ML Odds +225
Yes (+240) To Go the Distance No (-345)
Over 1.5 (-106) Total Rounds Under 1.5 (-125)
-134 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +370
+750 To Win by Submission +2800
+385 To Win by Decision +550
76% ML Splits (By Handle) 24%
73% ML Splits (By Bets) 27%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

With a combined record of 24-3, this is one of the top battles of UFC 249. Francis Ngannou is the clear favorite and 76% of the money is on him at -278, but Jairzinho Rozenstruik is undefeated and does not want his first UFC loss to come on the big stage. He is +225 to win, however and only has 24% of the money on his side.

 

Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz Betting Odds

UFC 249: Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz – Tale of the Tape
Cejudo vs. Cruz
15-2 Record 22-2
-210 ML Odds +175
Yes (-177) To Go the Distance No (+131)
Over 4.5 (-200) Total Rounds Under 4.5 (+148)
+275 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +1000
+700 To Win by Submission +1400
+140 To Win by Decision +275
64% ML Splits (By Handle) 36%
64% ML Splits (By Bets) 36%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

This is a huge fight, as both Cejudo and Cruz will look to help their overall legacies in UFC history. Both fighters only have two losses, but bettors believe Cejudo will win this one as 64% of the money comes in the -210 favorite. In addition, Cejudo has won his last five fights in the UFC.

 

– UFC 249 Main Event –

 

 

Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje Betting Odds

UFC 249: Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje – Tale of the Tape
Ferguson vs. Gaethje
26-3 Record 21-2
-186 ML Odds +158
Yes (+320) To Go the Distance No (-500)
Over 2.5 (+100) Total Rounds Under 2.5 (-134)
+260 To Win by KO, TKO or DQ +180
+240 To Win by Submission +2500
+500 To Win by Decision +1200
79% ML Splits (By Handle) 21%
69% ML Splits (By Bets) 31%
Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

 

The main event boats two of the best fighters in the entire world between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje. Tony Ferguson is the heavy favorite at -186, as he will need a win to face off against Khabib Nurmagomedov for the title. This fight is not expected to go the distance, as “No” is -500 on DraftKings. There are two interesting facts from DraftKings for this fight:

  • Ferguson has won 12 fights in a row.
  • In four of Ferguson’s last five fights as a favorite, he has won in round two. Ferguson to win in Round 2 is +600 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

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